Griffin Canning Signing Fits Stearns Profile

It seems like David Stearns has an m.o. when it comes to putting together a starting rotation. Last offseason, it was Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser, veterans coming off inconsistent-to-bad years. Low risk and high reward. Two of those three worked out.

So far this offseason, it’s Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Griffin Canning, who the Mets signed Wednesday to a one-year, $4.25 million deal. He is coming off a terrible season with the Angels.

Canning, 28, made 31 starts and went 6-13 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 171.2 innings. The right-hander led the American League in earned runs allowed (99) and gave up the second-most home runs (31), sixth-most walks (66) and seventh-most hits (174). His strikeout percentage fell from a 2023 career-high 25.9 to a career-low 17.6.

He tossed five innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts to beat the Mets on Aug. 4 for his first win in six weeks. “I think I was in a good spot mentally, not trying to be so perfect and probably hiding the ball a bit better,” he said after the game in Anaheim.

The Angels traded Canning to the Braves for Jorge Soler in October and the Braves non-tendered him, which made him a free agent. He is expected to compete for a spot in the back of the rotation with Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn.

Canning was a top prospect when the Angels selected him in the second round of the 2017 draft out of UCLA. He shot up the minors quickly, making just 30 starts before his 2019 debut. He showed promise in his rookie year, going 5-6 with a 4.58 ERA and posting 1.3 bWAR.

Covid-shortened 2020 may have been his best season, his ERA was a career-best 3.99 and he won a Gold Glove, but ineffectiveness and injuries plagued him in 2021 – he was sent down to Triple-A – as he struggled while pitching to a 5.60 ERA. He missed all of 2022 with a lower back stress fracture.

His return in 2023 was a step forward (7-8, 4.32 ERA, 139 strikeouts in 127 innings) but then this year he regressed, got traded, non-tendered and found his way onto Stearns’ radar.

Eli Ben-Porat, who contributes to Baseball America, likes the signing. “The Mets are going to look so savvy when they fix Canning,” he posted on X with a chart showing the movement on Canning’s pitches. He thinks Canning has a “very good” changeup and slider and would be wise to add a sinker to his repertoire.

Baseball analyst OC also thinks the Mets made a shrewd move, posting on X that Canning can be a “dominant swingman.”

Canning in 2024 was a four-pitch pitcher who threw his fastball 37 percent of the time at an average of 93 mph. He used a change (27 percent, 88 mph), slider (24 percent, 87 mph) and curve (11 percent, 80 mph) as well.

“An intriguing part of Canning’s profile is he gets above average velo from his secondaries while having below-average fastball velo as a pronator,” OC tweeted.

Canning’s career marks over five years: 25-34, 4.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 483 strikeouts in 509 IP. He has made 99 appearances and 94 starts.

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