Are the Raptors ready for life without Jakob Poeltl?
The reality of a team that has the fourth-worst record through nearly two months of play is that most folks watching have already begun to shift their focus forward. Thinking more about what could, or should be, and less about what is.
And while the “is” undoubtedly matters, the injury-riddled Toronto Raptors and their fans have had little opportunity to figure what exactly they are to this point. With over 100 man games lost, the ability to identify or evaluate players and combinations of significance has proven to be challenging.
Yet, that roster ambiguity has hardly stopped folks from theorizing over what’s to come. Especially now, with the trade deadline inching closer each day and the Raptors being in a position to possibly cash in on a handful of veterans. The couch GM takes are flying as fast as Santa’s sleigh on Christmas Eve nowadays.
Interestingly, most of the grizzled players Toronto could offer suitors provide similar value on the market. A nice depth piece capable of sopping up minutes as a plug-and-play option. But there is one vet that stands out from the rest, Jakob Poeltl.
Before he missed Thursday night’s 101-94 loss to the Brooklyn Nets, Poeltl had played in 26 of Toronto’s previous 27 contests and started each of those but one. His impact goes far beyond depth in a rotation and the seven-footer has undeniably proven that this season. Poeltl is averaging career-highs in scoring (15.5), field goal makes (6.6), free throw percentage (68.2), rebounds (11.0) and steals (1.1) on over 32 minutes a night.
Simply put, Poeltl is the hardest player to replace on the Raptors not named Scottie Barnes.
His ability to create for his others through effective screening, passing and short-roll operating, while also providing meaningful interior defence is unlike anyone on the team. Which is why his existence on the roster also creates conflict. While his impact is obvious, Poeltl’s value on the open market could very well be enough to fetch the Raptors a haul for the future. Plus, moving on from the big man invites more losing which helps Toronto collect more ping pong balls ahead of the draft lottery. Hence the prognosticating ahead of the deadline.
But are the Raptors ready for life without Poeltl? If he was moved by Feb. 6, would the team be in a secure enough place that it could survive his absence without crippling the development of the young stars?
For what it’s worth, Barnes doesn’t seem to think so. When I asked him if Poeltl’s absence impacted the team’s fifth consecutive loss, the 23-year-old’s sentiment was clear.
“Jakob is a huge part of our team,” Barnes said after his 16-point, six-rebound, two-block performance. “All the things he does, he’s able to play in the pick-and-roll, rebound … alter shots on defence and in the paint … he’s having a really great year and we need him.”
While justifiably a difficult question to answer, on Thursday, Toronto got a glimpse of what to expect should a deal go down.
For what had to makings of a listless December game soon to be forgotten, the Raptors and Nets made it a fun watch (for stretches). Toronto rolled out a lineup of Scottie Barnes, Ja’Kobe Walter, Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo. Both RJ Barrett (illness) and Davion Mitchell (shoulder) were late scratches and subsequently, it was the Raptors’ youngest lineup ever at a collective average age of 22 years and 187 days.
In some ways, the youth movement ran the risk of exacerbating Poeltl’s absence, which it did, but it also gave the Raptors a fresh look. With Barnes surrounded by a trio of shooters (Walter, Dick and Agbaji) and a mobile switch-welcoming big (Mogbo), the lineup looked as most would have idealized around the franchise cornerstone.
And the dividends of all that extra spacing was clear throughout most of the night. Whether it was cutters getting free lanes — like Mogbo throwing down a lob dunk out of a Spain PNR in the first quarter — or a barrage of threes being hit following a drive-and-kick or skip pass — like when the Raptors nailed seven of their 15 triples in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, Toronto’s Poeltl-less defence also made its presence felt as the increased movement and switch-ability led to disruption. The Raptors forced 17 turnovers (plus-five) for 16 points.
But it wasn’t all peaches and cream for the squad as the Austrian’s absence was undoubtedly felt, especially in the most obvious places. Toronto was outrebounded 53-34 on the night while Brooklyn grabbed 15 of those boards on the offensive end (plus-five) and held a plus-10 advantage on points in the paint because of it. That was even after Nic Claxton, the Nets top rebounder, was ejected midway through the second quarter. The Raptors sorely missed Poeltl’s presence around the rim — he’s averaging the seventh-most rebounds per game while his 3.9 offensive boards top the charts.
And beyond the explicit, the understated was even more damning in terms of the outcome. Screen assists are by no means a sexy thing to talk about but they are undoubtedly at the core of what makes Poeltl pivotal to the Raptors (and any team pursuing him). He’s second in the NBA for average screen assists (5.0) and fourth for points generated from those picks (10.8). It’s a major reason why the Raptors’ halfcourt offence (as mediocre as it’s been) hasn’t been more of a problem, and also why without Poeltl on Thursday, it was eight points worse per 100 possessions than their season average, per Cleaning the Glass.
Okay, the Raptors suck without their starting centre, we knew that. If not for the aforementioned, there’s also the simple fact that Toronto’s net rating is nearly eight points worse when he’s off the floor this year. But for those who are ready to deal Poeltl, that’s kind of the point. Move him, lose more and hopefully “capture the Flagg.” So, how exactly does crumbling against the Nets provide any sense of caution to that idea?
Well, for starters, offence inside the 3-point line was noticeably harder to come by without Poeltl as the Raptors’ shot diet was noticeably different from its usual distribution. A team that balances a roughly equal amount of rim (34 per cent) and 3-point attempts (39.2), with a healthy bit of mid-range (26.8) mixed in, instead relied on triples for over 50 per cent of its looks against Brooklyn. The Raptors converted on a passable 34.1 per cent clip, with most of those makes coming courtesy of the Kansas Jayhawks duo of Dick and Agabji as they each went 4-of-8 from distance.
To be fair, in some ways that was intentional for Toronto. Head coach Darko Rajakovic admitted as much post-game, saying the Raptors planned to shoot more from distance given the makeup of his undermanned squad. And while injuries and playstyle explain away some of the issues, the lack of penetration, especially down the stretch, was noticeably costly.
By the time the game had reached the final two minutes, Toronto’s once eight-point fourth-quarter lead had vanished. (Largely thanks to Cam Johnson who scored 15 of his game-high 33 points in the final frame, speaking of players with a lot of trade value.) With the game knotted up at 90 a piece, the Raptors next four possessions went as follows: Shead miss on a corner three, Barnes miss on an above the break three, Barnes offensive foul and Dick airball from three.
An offence that generated 26 assists got “stagnant” in the closing moments as Rajakovic described following the loss and watching it in real time, it was hard not to imagine how Poeltl would’ve kept things moving. His short-roll floater would’ve acted as a release valve for some easy buckets, or his off-ball screening to open driving/cutting lanes for one of Agbaji or Dick who finished with 20 and 19 points respectively, would’ve gone a long way.
So, while the Raptors lost, it ultimately wasn’t the kind where they fought hard until the bitter end and came out stronger. Toronto’s execution down the stretch was just poor, and undoubtedly exacerbated without its starting centre to alleviate things. And a winnable game that would’ve snapped a four-game skid slipped away because of it. For Barnes specifically, he had an opportunity to gain from some valuable crunchtime reps. But with a supporting cast that stood around and watched rather than help him create advantages, the 23-year-old resorted to isolation plays that yielded little. That development opportunity was the cost of Thursday night’s loss and Toronto paid in full.
Does any of that answer whether the Raptors are ready for life without Poeltl? I guess it depends, what do you want that reality to look like? If the goal is to lose expeditiously for a chance at some lottery luck, then surely it’s time to say goodbye. But if Toronto’s objective is to shepherd the young stars and identify what they’re capable of, then by no means is the team in a solid enough spot to risk losing what Poeltl adds to the core.
Whichever side of the coin you land on, one thing is clear: conversations will only get louder as the trade deadline gets closer. And with Poeltl considered day-to-day with the groin injury, Thursday may have just been the first instalment in the saga that is life without the Austrian.
The last thing I’ll say is that don’t lose sight of what is to chase what may be. Before we prognosticate, for the Raptors to make any decisions at, or leading up to, the deadline they’ll need as much insight as possible on what the roster has to offer now and what replacing any of those pieces entails.
“It’s a mistake to try to look too far ahead, the chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time.” – Winston Churchill
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