Free Agent Profile: Max Scherzer, SP
Max Scherzer, SP
Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 40 (07/27/1984)
2024 Traditional Stats: 9 GS, 43 1/3 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 2-4, 40 SO, 10 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 22.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 3.86 xERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 0.6 fWAR
Rundown
Max Scherzer has amassed 216 victories and 2,878 major league innings, contributing to two World Series championships. A three-time Cy Young Award winner and eight-time All-Star, Scherzer’s career is filled with accolades. Nevertheless, at 40 years old, after a decade of near-unmatched dominance, signs of decline have begun to emerge.
From 2012-2022, Scherzer had posted an ERA below 3.50 every season, with the exception of 2020. However, his ERA rose to 3.77 in 2023 and 3.95 in 2024, supported by FIPS of 4.32 and 4.18, respectively. In the first half of 2023, Scherzer struggled, recording a 4.01 ERA and 4.70 FIP, but a midseason trade led to a resurgence. He rebounded with a 3.20 ERA for the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers. Scherzer helped them secure a postseason berth, though he did struggle in their playoff run.
That being said, Scherzer’s primary problems over the past couple of years have been more about staying on the field. In 2022, Scherzer logged just 145 1/3 innings, his lowest total since 2009 (excluding 2020), revealing a red flag on his durability. Despite the lesser workload, Scherzer remained dominant, delivering a 2.29 ERA and an outstanding 7.21 SO/W ratio for the Mets. This performance reflected his past excellence; between 2014 and 2023, he pitched only one season with an ERA above 3.00, which occurred during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
Scherzer began the 2024 season on the 15-day injured list and underwent a long rehab following back surgery. After returning, he made eight starts before abruptly finding himself back on the injured list in early August. He managed one more start in September but was then sidelined again just a week later.
Scherzer’s advanced peripheral stats remain strong. While he did not pitch enough innings to qualify for percentile leaderboards, his 36.4% chase rate is elite. Furthermore, he hasn’t lost control, as evidenced by a 5.6% walk rate that is actually better than his career average of 6.5%. His xERA has obviously been excellent since the Statcast era began, and 2024 was another solid year in that regard. Additionally, even during his relatively average 2023 season (104 ERA+), Scherzer posted a strong 3.28 xERA. That’s slightly concerning, but definitely not deal-breaking.
Contract
Veteran starts over the years have historically fetched notable contracts, and Scherzer himself was no expectation, landing a $130 million deal just a few years ago. However, he is no longer the same pitcher, nor is he coming off a brilliant Cy-Young winning season like his former teammate Justin Verlander was in 2023.
For context, Lance Lynn signed a one-year, $11 million deal two years ago, while Zack Greinke got one year and $13 million the year before. Scherzer, though, is significantly better than Lynn and Greinke were, and the current pitching market must also be considered. There’s probably no chance he gets two years, but Scherzer has no doubt been effective even at 40 years old. MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of one year, $16 million, seems reasonable.
Recommendation
To be clear, Scherzer is no longer the pitcher he once was, but his veteran presence and competitive spirit could make him a valuable asset for the Mets, particularly for mentoring younger pitchers. He would likely slot in as a decent#4 starter or a weaker #3, depending on who David Stearns signs. Unless New York makes a surprise move for a top-tier pitcher like Corbin Burnes or Rōki Sasaki, he can be a viable option for their rotation. Another potential issue could be that the Mets (or Scherzer) have no intention to reunite. Ultimately, the Mets will need to analyze the pitching market and figure out whether Scherzer would be the best option.
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