MANILA, Philippines – A new survey by polling firm Pulse Asia has the administration slate taking 8 or 9 seats, 1 or 2 for the Duterte opposition camp, and 2 independent candidates as likely winners of the 2025 senatorial elections if the midterm polls were held from November 26 to December 3.

“We are releasing the pre-election voting preferences for the 2025 senatorial race, based on an independent survey conducted by Pulse Asia Research Inc. The survey involved face-to-face interviews with 2,400 randomly selected adult Filipinos,” Pulse Asia said on Saturday, December 21.

Respondents were asked to choose from 66 names of Commission on Elections (Comelec)-approved senatorial candidates on the list. Only 3% refused to answer while 2.3% gave no answer; 1.7% said “don’t know.” 

Broadcaster and ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo, running on the Marcos administration slate, is again on top with around 62% voting for him. The first social welfare secretary under the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration has been topping most of the pre-election surveys. He was bypassed by the Commission on Appointments in November 2022 over his US citizenship and libel conviction.

Former senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III got 59% support. After getting term-limited in 2022, Sotto returned to hosting duties in the long-running noon show Eat Bulaga!, which now airs on the Kapatid channel TV5.

The two broadcast personalities ranked first or second in the latest Pulse Asia survey. 

Reelectionist Senator Bong Go, former close aide of ex-president Rodrigo Duterte, was third with 54%. Ben Tulfo, Erwin’s brother, was next with 52.7%. Go and Ben Tulfo were ranked 3rd or 4th. Go is running under Duterte’s PDP-Laban party, while television-radio-social media personality Ben is an independent candidate. 

The Tulfo brothers are perceived to be approachable defenders of the voiceless, acting quickly on people’s problems. If they win, they will join brother Raffy Tulfo in the Senate, the first time that three siblings would sit concurrently in the upper house.

Reelectionist Pia Cayetano and former senator-boxing champion Manny Pacquiao got 46.5% and 45% support respectively, with the two ranked 5th to 9th place.

Cayetano, a candidate of the Nacionalista Party (NP), and Pacquiao are both with the administration slate. 

Former senator Ping Lacson, an independent but backed by the administration, got the same statistical level of support (43-44%) as TV host Willie Revillame, and reelectionist Ramon “Bong” Revilla of Lakas-CMD. The three would have placed anywhere from 5th to 10th place if polls were held during the survey period. 

Revillame is running as an independent candidate.

The last two seats would be a close fight among Makati Mayor Abby Binay; reelectionist senators Lito Lapid, Imee Marcos, Bato dela Rosa; and Las Piñas Congresswoman Camille Villar. They would rank from 10th to 15th place if polls were held during the survey period.

Of the four, only Dela Rosa, running under PDP-Laban, is not on the administration slate. The president’s sister, Imee, withdrew from the administration slate last September, but is still running under the Nacionalista Party (NP), one of the ruling coalition parties.

Still within striking distance of the winning circle of 12 were former senators Kiko Pangilinan of the Liberal Party, Gringo Honasan, Bam Aquino, and former Interior secretary Benhur Abalos. 

Cardiologist and health advocate Dr. Willie Ong of Aksyon and administration bet Francis Tolentino would rank 19th to 20th. Ong has been getting treatment for cancer, and said last October that his sarcoma or mass had shrunk by 60%. 

The 2,400 survey respondents were asked, “Kung ang eleksyon sa Mayo 2025 ay isasagawa ngayon, sino-sino sa mga sumusunond na personalidad ang inyong biboboto bilang SENADOR? Maari kauyong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan.” 

(If the May 2025 elections were to be held today, whom among the following personalities would you vote for as senator? You can choose as many as 12 names.) 

Compared to the Pulse Asia’s September 6 to 13 Ulat ng Bayan senatorial survey with 74 names on the list, the biggest gainers were:

• Camille Villar (+15.3 points)
• Lito Lapid (+14.5 points)
• Bong Go (+14.4 points)
• Manny Pacquiao (+13.1 points)
• Kiko Pangilinan (+12.6 points)
• Tito Sotto (+11.2 points)
• Benhur Balos (+11.1 points)
• Bato dela Rosa (+10.7 points)

For a deeper dive on the 2025 mid-term elections, read these articles on voter trends and issues by data forensics company, The Nerve, and Rappler:

• [DECODED] Corruption, inflation, education are top of mind for voters – Nerve survey
• [DECODED] Voters tag integrity, honesty as ‘most important’ characteristics of PH senator – Nerve
• [DECODED] Candidates’ performance and competence important for voters – Nerve survey
• [DECODED] Duterte’s drug war haunts Dela Rosa and Bong Go’s Senate bids
  

– Rappler.com