Is the Next Middle East War in Yemen?
On Saturday, Dec. 21, a ballistic missile fired from the Iranian-backed Houthis rebels in Yemen landed between two high-rise apartment buildings in southern Tel Aviv. The explosion blew out windows in surrounding apartments, resulting in glass shard injuries to 16 people. Luckily, no one was killed. At the scene, medic Yosef Kourdi of the Magen David Adom emergency medical service noted “significant blast damage to nearby buildings.”
Around 3:45 AM on Saturday, the high-altitude missile triggered sirens across Israel’s densely populated center, forcing millions out of bed and into bomb shelters minutes before the missile impacted. Video footage posted on social media captured the incoming missile landing in an empty playground between two buildings.
Hours later, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that fighter jets took off from the USS Harry S. Truman positioned in the Red Sea and carried out strikes on Houthis missile storage facilities and command centers throughout Yemen to “disrupt and degrade Houthis operations.” The U.S. attack marked the second round of airstrikes carried out against the Houthis last week. On Thursday, a squadron of Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets, refuelers, and reconnaissance planes traveled over 1,200 miles to drop over 60 munitions on Houthis military targets along Yemen’s western coast, and attacking sites in the rebel-controlled capital of Sana’a for the first time.
While the F/A 18 Super Hornet jets from the “Red Rippers” Squadron out of Norfolk, Virginia, took off from Truman’s flight deck on Saturday morning, the carrier group encountered a wave of drones and anti-ship cruise missiles fired from western Yemen. The carrier group’s surface-to-air defense systems repelled the oncoming assault but resulted in friendly fire on two F/A 18s. “The guided-missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, which is part of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, mistakenly fired on the F/A-18s,” CENTCOM confirmed over the weekend.
The downed pilots ejected and were later recovered alive with only minor injuries. Nonetheless, the engagement marked one of the most serious incidents in the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect international merchant shipping and dismantle Houthis military capabilities in the Red Sea.
The Houthis claim that their attacks on Israel, U.S. naval assets, and international shipping over the past year are in solidarity with Hamas and Hezbollah’s war on Israel. The armed political and Shia Islamic group emerged in Yemen in the 1990s as “Ansar Allah” (Partisans of God) in revolt against the authoritarian Sunni government. The rebels later adopted the name of the movement’s leader, Hussein al-Houthis. Their rogue presence with automatic weapons and pickup trucks proved formidable during the 2011 Arab Spring when, with Iranian military support, the Houthis upgraded their weapons and wrangled control over much of Yemen’s northern and western provinces, including Sana’a, causing neighboring Saudi Arabia to fear an Iranian satellite state on their borders.
Since the outbreak of war between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah after Oct. 7, 2023, the Houthis have launched over 200 ballistic missiles and 170 drones at Israel in a declaration of solidarity with the Iranian-led “axis of resistance.” In response to the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last September, Houthis military spokesman Yahya Saree pledged, “We will carry out more military operations against the Israeli enemy in victory for the blood of our brothers in Palestine and Lebanon.”
On Sept. 29, the IAF carried out its first attack on the Yemeni rebels in a devastating air raid on the Houthis-controlled Hodeidah seaport facilities, power stations, and oil depots. A recent investigation by the Turkish state-operated media Anadolu Ajansi revealed that the airstrikes since July have caused over $313 million in losses to Yemeni seaport and transportation facilities.
The Houthis’ war on the West has recently played out in the Red Sea, with over 100 attacks on international merchant vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandeb bottleneck between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Since November 2023, many shipping companies have avoided the strategic Suez Canal and the Red Sea by rerouting vessels around Africa. The resultant shipping delays and threats to international vessels forced the U.S. and Britain to launch Operation Prosperity Guardian. Over the past summer, one U.S. naval official described the campaign as “the most intense running sea battle the Navy has faced since World War II.” Likewise, Capt. David Wroe, commodore of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers in the Red Sea, noted that repelling Houthis attacks “is every single day, every single watch.”
The back-to-back Israeli and U.S. airstrikes in Yemen and the successful missile attack on Tel Aviv over the weekend could mark an upturn in the war against the Houthis. Saturday afternoon, the rebel group released a statement promising to continue attacks on Israel “until the aggression [on Palestinians] stops and the siege on the Gaza Strip is lifted.” The IDF is also currently investigating the Iron Dome’s failure to intercept the Houthis missile, which boosted the rebel’s confidence to launch additional attacks on Israel’s populated center. As seen in video footage, two interceptors from the Iron Dome made contact with the incoming missile but failed to destroy it.
For much of the war over the past year, Houthis attacks — although menacing and lethal — have been largely peripheral to the ground campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon and the futile efforts to cut hostage and ceasefire deals. A speech given by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following the Saturday attack on Tel Aviv indicated signs of stepped-up action on the Yemeni front.
Reportedly, Mossad chief David Barnea expressed to officials in Jerusalem the need to “go for the head [of the snake], for Iran — if we only hit the Houthis, it’s not certain we’ll manage to stop them.” Barnea’s statement was in reference to supply chains feeding the Houthis’ military, political, and financial strength and the increasing threat of Iranian nuclear capabilities. According to the Israeli Channel 12 News, however, the security cabinet has determined that the Houthis’ missile attacks are not always coordinated with or appreciated by Iranian leaders. Nonetheless, “There are going to be more attacks,” an Israeli military official told the Times of Israel over the weekend, and “Houthis are now the focus.”
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