Rare level four risk of severe storms across the state today
NEW...The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk to our north to a level four out of five for today. Future radar shows storms popping up beginning late morning and through early afternoon. These early storms will begin near I-10 and mature as they move towards central parts of the state. These cells will be capable of producing large hail and gaining rotation. Later in the afternoon/evening, a main line of storms is going to work into the region. This is when tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will become the primary threats. Large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible today. A chance of stronger (EF2+) tornadoes will be possible across central parts of the state and into Mississippi. I still believe that most of the most significant severe weather reports will end up being north of Acadiana, but it will be a close call. Northern parishes will be at the most risk.
As low pressure reaches peak intensity later in the afternoon and evening, the wind shear will also reach peak intensity. This is when damaging winds and tornadoes become the greatest threat. Supercells capable of producing stronger tornadoes will likely initialize (develop) near I-10 mid-afternoon/early evening and move into northern Acadiana and central parts of the state.
This highlighted area north of I-10 and spanning into central Louisiana and Mississippi will be where the greatest risk of stronger tornadoes will lie.
The final line of storms will work through Acadiana during the evening hours, producing more of a damaging wind threat. Most storms should be done and out of the area by 10pm.
I do have to emphasize the difference between winter severe weather setups and ones which occur in Spring. During Spring months (March-May), the cold waters of the northern Gulf can be a lid on instability, weakening storms as they roll through. These December-January systems are different in the sense that colder waters of the Gulf may have less effect on the overall system, due to the nature of these Subtropical jet stream systems. Many of our biggest severe weather events, which actually produced, happen during these winter months. For that reason, we certainly need to take the threat seriously. Here's what you can do:
- Download the KLFY weather app to have alerts sent right to your mobile device
- If you're in a mobile home or a home surrounded by large trees, make sure you keep close tabs on the weather. Stay with a friend, neighbor, or family member if you do not feel safe
- Tune into the KLFY broadcast as we will be delivering minute-by-minute updates on storms