How this one actress could upset Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman at the Golden Globes
We are just days out from the 2025 Golden Globes and several categories are still too close to call. Perhaps the most wide-open race is Best Film Drama Actress
With many of the top Oscar contenders like Mikey Madison (Anora), Cynithia Erivo (Wicked), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) over in the Golden Globes’ comedy/musical category, the drama race could be prime for an upset win.
Heavyweights Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) are the favorites, according to the Gold Derby panel of experts. Jolie is leading the pack with 37/10 odds and a whopping 1,200 users forecasting her victory, which includes 13 experts, seven editors, and 11 of the site’s top 24 users. Kidman is next at 4/1, followed by Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at 9/2, Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) at 11/2, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) at 13/2, and Kate Winslet (Lee) at 7/1.
Despite the odds, there is a path for Torres to pull the upset.
She stars in the political biopic as human rights activist Eunice Paiva, who searches for her missing husband, politician Rubens Paiva, during the Brazilian Military Dictatorship in 1971. The film is directed by Walter Salles, best known for 1998’s Central Station, which won the Globe for Best Foreign Language Film and garnered a Best Actress Globe nomination for Torres’ mother, Fernanda Montenegro, that led her to an Oscar bid. With I’m Still Here nominated in the renamed Best Non-English Language Film category, Torres is the only actress in her drama race who is not a sole nominee for her movie, which could be a great sign for her chances of winning. Meanwhile, Torres has the second most number of experts (six) and editors (two) backing her, both ahead of Kidman.
For Kidman and Jolie, their movies have had less broad support with the critics’ groups and precursor awards. Kidman missed out on a key Critics Choice Award nomination — as did Torres, but hers is more understandable as the organization rarely recognizes international performances — and Jolie didn’t generate the amount of recognition from the regional awards bodies for a perceived frontrunner. Both are certainly vulnerable at this stage, which could allow Torres to sneak up and snatch the Globe from under them, the same way another international actress, Isabelle Huppert, surprised eight years ago for Elle. Huppert notably took down Natalie Portman for Jackie (which, coincidentally, was helmed by Maria director Pablo Larraín).
The Golden Globes do have a reputation for leaning more toward international performances, and with the voting body adding 215 voters from across the world, Torres could find herself claiming victory. Also of note, the studio behind the film, Sony Pictures Classics, was pivotal in securing Penélope Cruz‘s Oscar nomination for Parallel Mothers with limited buzz ahead of time, and the studio’s campaigning could not only help Torres at the Globes but push her into the Oscar race.
In any case, we’ll see how everything shakes out when the Globes are presented on Jan. 5.
Note: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.
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