Spatial analysis of socioeconomic data and its relationship with illicit crops in Nariño-Colombia

by Andrés Fernando Grajales-Marín, Fabio Humberto Sepúlveda-Murillo, Alex Tapia, Alexander Tabares

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to eradicate poverty and promote sustainable development; however, socioeconomic disparities persist globally, particularly in Colombia. With a Gini index of 0.556 in 2022, Colombia ranks among the most unequal countries in Latin America, with its southwest region of Nariño facing severe socioeconomic challenges. Concurrently, Nariño registers the highest levels of coca cultivation in Colombia, accounting for 65% of national cocaine production, reflecting the region’s precarious conditions. This study investigates the extent to which the spatial distribution of socioeconomic factors explains coca cultivation patterns in Nariño. Grounded in conflict economics, social capital, and social marginalization theories, the research constructs composite indices representing education, health, public services, economic conditions, and vulnerability. Using spatial analysis, it identifies areas with heightened poverty and vulnerability and examines their relationship with illicit crops. The findings highlight spatial non-stationarity in the factors influencing coca cultivation, offering region-specific insights and policy recommendations to combat illicit crops and foster sustainable development. These results provide a foundation for targeted interventions and contribute to broader strategies addressing inequality and illegal economies in Colombia.