China Sends New Years' Message With Muscular Naval Drills

In the closing days of 2024, China's navy made several unusually muscular deployments in sensitive locations, including the strait bordering the U.S. Navy's base on Okinawa. 

According to Yomiuri Shimbun, Chinese forces carried out previously-unseen maneuvers in the Miyako Strait, which passes through Japan's southwest islands. On December 22, three Chinese PLA Navy frigates sailed between the main island of Okinawa and Miyakojima, heading toward the East China Sea. They were accompanied by three China Coast Guard vessels, including CCG 2901, the largest armed cutter in the world (tied with sister ship CCG 5901). 

The movements are meaningful because of the strait's location - adjacent to the largest concentration of U.S. forces in Japan. Constructed in the waning days of WWII, the sprawling complex of bases on Okinawa has supported American power projection in East Asia for 80 years. Kadena Air Base, located near the center of the island, was essential for U.S. operations in the Korean War and Vietnam War, and its location would give it a central role in any conflict over the future of Taiwan. Okinawa also hosts the U.S. Marine Corps' Third Marine Expeditionary Force, the core of the USMC's rapid-reaction forces in the First Island Chain. 

A Chinese blockade of the Miyako Strait could separate the Marine Corps' stand-in forces from their supply chain. The U.S. Marine Littoral Regiment has plans to deploy HIMARS rocket artillery launchers to disbursed locations in Japan's southwestern islands in the event of a "highly imminent" Taiwan contingency, according to Kyodo News. This plan includes sites on the far side of the Miyako Strait from Okinawa. 

"This [patrol] is an unusual move that indicates China's intention to impose a naval blockade," a Japanese government source told Yomiuri Shimbun. 

Stronger presence at Scarborough Shoal

China's military also ramped up its patrols at contested Scarborough Shoal over the holidays. On January 2, CCG 5901 - sister ship to CCG 2901, the world's largest armed cutter - arrived at Scarborough for a show of force, Ray Powell of Stanford's Gordian Knot Center told RFA. The CCG 5901 joined an existing fleet of more than half a dozen maritime militia trawlers and three midsize CCG cutters at the shoal. Scarborough is within the Philippine EEZ, but it has been effectively occupied by Chinese forces since a standoff in 2012. 

In November, China published a set of detailed maritime and airspace boundaries for its claim to Scarborough Shoal, the first time Beijing has laid out the precise coordinates of its demands for control of distant waters. (Beijing claims sovereignty over the vast majority of the South China Sea, though its assertions have been rejected by an international tribunal.)

In support of the newly-detailed claim over Scarborough Shoal, the PLA Air Force conducted rarely-seen bomber and fighter overflights over the reef on December 29. The PLA Navy also dispatched three warships to reinforce its patrol units around the reef, including a Type 055 destroyer - the service's largest and most capable surface combatant.  

The China Coast Guard has also begun helicopter training in the area, according to Chinese defense commentator Yang Xiao - sending a message to U.S. and Philippine forces that control of the skies will also be contested. 

"Beijing is putting real teeth behind its ‘indisputable sovereignty’ claim over the shoal," Powell told RFA.