Is Lily-Rose Depp a dark horse for ‘Nosferatu’? And more in the Oscar Experts Mailbag

Welcome to Oscar Experts Mailbag, a rebranded version of Oscar Experts Typing and a spin-off of Awards Magnet, in which Gold Derby editors and experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen answer your burning questions of the week. Questions have been edited for length and clarity. Email your questions to slugfests@goldderby.com.

JudasOfficial writes:

Hi Joyce and Chris,

I saw Nosferatu despite never seeing Nosferaone, and I loved it. I was blown away by the original cinematography, costumes, etc. — you know, the “craft categories.” But Lily-Rose Depp’s acting was no doubt the heart and soul of the movie, achieving manic tonal shifts that affected not only everyone in her scenes but the world around her. Is it crazy to have her as a dark horse for Best Supporting Actress?

Chris: Depp as our final “heart and soul” award nominee of the season feels right. She can join Yura Borisov, Felicity Jones, Selena Gomez, and Isabella Rossellini in that completely made-up category. But while she would be a deserving nominee — and probably create some great debate about her placement between lead and supporting — I don’t think Nosferatu is a serious acting contender. But Robert Eggers’ film still feels like a potential dark horse to me for Best Picture, if only because of those great crafts, beautiful crafts mentioned. It was a different year with a somewhat compromised field, but I’ve always thought of this one as a potential Nightmare Alley clone. So, Best Picture with three added crafts categories — maybe Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Costume Design, and Best Cinematography? It notably hit all three of those spots at the BAFTA longlists, along with Best Score and Best Production Design.

Joyce: Depp, who is the only cast member being campaigned in lead, is probably just coming a little too late. Nosferatu is a late release and didn’t have a festival run to build up buzz around her performance. And that’s to say nothing of the film’s genre. The Substance, whose buzz started way back at Cannes, already has a tall hill to climb as body horror, so psychosexual gothic horror is an even taller hill. Depp would’ve really benefited from a Globe nom (I predicted her!), especially with Best Drama Actress being such a loose category, but even then I don’t think I would predict her for the Oscars.

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Janice writes:

Hello Joyce & Chris,

Love the podcast. I’m a longtime listener. I really enjoy making predictions, and for the last two years, I hopedicted both Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway and Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction. I always like to go out on a limb for at least one person, and this year, I’m hopedicting Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice. What do you think his chances are for pulling off a nomination?

Chris: I was part of the BTH hive back in 2023 — the few, the proud — and I wanted Brown to get nominated for American Fiction because he popped off the screen. So it’s probably not very surprising that I’d be all in on Strong getting his first-ever Oscar nomination this year. I was predicting him for Armageddon Time back before that movie got castigated — side note: I would love to hear what James Gray thinks of The Brutalist — and it seems very obvious that Strong will become an Oscar nominee sooner rather than later. Is it going to happen? I think it might: Everyone who sees The Apprentice walks away with a great appreciation for Strong’s work as Roy Cohn and he’s… well, the “heart and soul” of the movie in a twisted way. Plus, I think there’s actually room for him in the Best Supporting Actor field. Strong’s Succession brother Kieran Culkin is obviously safe and I think Guy Pearce and Edward Norton have become entrenched as well. After that, there’s space. Yura Borisov feels right, but if he missed I wouldn’t be shocked. Denzel Washington feels right too, but Gladiator II has lost its momentum and I think he’s awfully vulnerable despite hitting the BAFTA longlists on Friday. But for Strong to be a serious contender, I think he has to land at the SAG Awards. Watch this space, I guess, to see if that happens next week.

Joyce: Even though I’ve had Sebastian Stan in my Best Actor lineup more recently than I’ve had Strong in Best Supporting Actor, I think the latter has a better shot than the former — and not just because he doesn’t have two movies in the mix. Anecdotally, Strong seems to be most people’s MVP from The Apprentice, and yes, his Roy Cohn is the film’s sicko “heart and soul,” getting shunned and humiliated by his own creation. I don’t think he needs the SAG nomination — BTH didn’t get it — because it’s the type of performance that would pull No. 1 votes from Oscar voters, but the SAG lineup, whether he’s in it or not, will offer insight into other contenders’ statuses in the race, and that could help him in the long run.

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Little Vicky writes:

Hello, Joyce & Chris!

Longtime fan, first-time emailer to slugfests@goldderby.com! Love your authenticity, wit, and ability to offer serious commentary without taking yourselves too seriously. So many folks can learn from your example! I cannot shake the sinking feeling that Marianne Jean-Baptiste will miss at the Oscars. I am a longtime MJB appreciator, though I will admit my introduction to her was from Without a Trace. Your continued predictions that she will get in have kept my hopes alive, but while she has garnered critics awards, she continues to be presented as a sleeper nominee in the press. She could have benefited greatly from an Actors on Actors or Actress Panel, though I enjoyed her visit to the Criterion Closet with Mike Leigh. Maybe she has enough voters that she doesn’t need to be the televised people’s choice. Now that we’ve hit 2025, where are you on Jean-Baptiste’s nomination chances?

Chris: Of the two of us, Joyce is the founding member of the MJB fan club. I’ve sadly pushed her out of my Best Actress Oscar predictions but only because I just think the race is too crowded with noisy movies. It’s hard for me to predict her right now over Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo, for instance, particularly because I think both The Substance and Wicked are making into the Best Picture field. Ditto Anora and Emilia Pérez for Mikey Madison and Karla Sofía Gascón. So that last spot is up for grabs, with Angelina Jolie with a perceived edge because she’s got the only biopic among this year’s top contenders. But I’ve been teetering on her missing as well — and this was before she got snubbed by the BAFTA longlists. But now I just don’t know if MJB or Nicole Kidman will be the actress to take Jolie’s place. If I had to guess right now, I’d pick Kidman — she’s got the edgy role and the Volpi Cup for Best Actress. But MJB might not need much to make it in either, particularly because her Hard Truths work screams — literally onscreen and figuratively offscreen — passion pick. What if both Kidman and Jean-Baptiste make it in with Madison and Gascón? I know I’m not supposed to ask the questions, but I think that is possible too — leaving Moore and Erivo to fight it out for the last spot.

Joyce: Yes, Without a Trace! Starring Golden Globe winner Anthony LaPaglia. I’m glad that MJB’s presence in my predictions has given you hope, but I cannot say that I have her in my quintet with full confidence. Actually much confidence at all. She’s mostly still there because, though I think she can still get in as a passion pick, I’m torn over with whom to replace her if I do drop her, so I’m just keeping her for now. Everyone’s pros and cons feel like they cancel each other out. I don’t think I’d ever consider MJB safe until her name is read on Jan. 17, but I do wonder how differently we’d all be looking at this race had she gotten in at the Golden Globes. That snub feels like it killed a lot of her momentum since a lot of us were talking about how she could win the Globe prior to nominations. If Jolie or Kidman prevail on Sunday, it’ll be harder to not predict either of them… but I’ll probably still wait for SAG and BAFTA.