South Africa’s agriculture to recover in 2025

This is likely to be a year of recovery for South Africa’s agriculture.

Much of the county benefited from the La Niña rains, but they were late in regions such as Delmas in Mpumalanga, as well as various parts of Limpopo and the Free State.

This put a strain on grazing veld and delayed summer crop planting. Still, the overall agricultural production conditions promise to be better than in 2024, which was characterised by the mid-summer drought and animal disease.

South Africa has progressed notably in controlling the spread of foot-and-mouth and other animal diseases such as avian influenza and African swine fever. This puts the livestock and poultry subsector in an ideal position to rebuild, provided the grazing veld and yellow maize production, a primary feed, recovers. 

Better dam levels and a stable electricity supply for irrigation will continue to benefit the horticulture subsector — fruit and vegetables  — and floriculture.

Reflections on 2024 performance

Let us be honest, the year we have left behind was difficult. Five critical events and themes dominated the South African agricultural scene. Combined, they resulted in a mixed performance across the different agricultural subsectors in 2024. 

First, we started the 2023-24 production season (this is the 2024 calendar year) aware that it would be a mild El Niño year, but the timing of it was uncertain at the start of the season. Consensus from various early forecasts showed that it would intensify from March onwards.

Theoretically, this would not be the worst timing for farmers because the crop would have passed the pollination stages requiring moisture. As a result, we had assumed that South Africa would still achieve a decent harvest. 

Farmers planted slightly higher areas for the 2023-24 summer grains and oilseeds than the previous one. The good rains at the start of the season were a major incentive for farmers, along with relatively higher agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, for the first few months of the season, South Africa seemed to be in for a decent summer grains and oilseed harvest. 

The conditions changed for the worst from February to the end of March 2024. The country did not receive any meaningful rains throughout this period, and there was also a severe heatwave. This resulted in significant crop failure and financial loss to farmers because they had planted a slightly bigger area. 

By the end of the season, South Africa’s 2023-24 summer grains and oilseed harvest was down 23% from the previous season at 15.4 million tonnes. The consequence of crop failure is the tight grain supply and higher commodity prices.

Second, animal disease continued to be a major problem for farmers, with cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in pigs and avian influenza in poultry. 

Although animal disease outbreaks are not unique to South Africa, they intensified. In 2022, six of South Africa’s nine provinces reported foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks. This was the first time in the country’s history that the disease had spread this wide. Livestock and poultry farming account for roughly half of agriculture’s annual gross value added.

This situation prompted the government and industry stakeholders to increase their focus on strengthening farm biosecurity controls and surveillance. Other interventions that are still being implemented include efforts to improve South Africa’s veterinary and related support services (mainly the laboratories) that deal with vaccine production needs. 

On 25 October 2024, the department of agriculture released positive news, which we believe will further support the recovery path of the industry. “The foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, which occurred during 2021-2022, has been successfully resolved in the North West, Free State, Gauteng and Mpumalanga provinces. These provinces … have now completed comprehensive testing of animals on quarantined farms. The results indicate that the foot-and-mouth disease virus is no longer present.” 

This is admirable progress and further supports South Africa’s ambition of being a global player in red meat exports. Addressing biosecurity issues is essential for a successful path to the export markets.

Positive developments in 2024

Third, there were other positive developments in 2024. One, which is not agriculture-specific, is the improvement in electricity supply. This partly contributed to robust horticulture production.

It is always worth highlighting that all of South Africa’s horticulture — fruits, vegetables and floriculture — depends on irrigation, which requires an adequate power supply. 

Furthermore, crucial field crops such as roughly 20% of maize, 15% of soybean, 34% of sugarcane and nearly 50% of wheat are produced under irrigation. 

Electricity is also used in various processing activities related to red meat, poultry, piggery, wool and dairy production. Similarly, agribusinesses and other food-producing businesses and various downstream processing activities, such as milling, bakeries, abattoirs, wine processing, packaging and animal vaccine production,rely on electricity. Thus, we believe a better electricity supply enabled better agricultural operations in 2024.

Fourth, logistics infrastructure efficiency remains a primary concern for the farming sector. But the ongoing collaboration between Transnet, private companies and various logistical organisations helps ensure the continuous flow of products, even if there are delays in specific periods. 

The gains of this collaboration are visible in the export figures. South Africa’s cumulative agricultural export value for the first three quarters of 2024 is up 4% from 2023, at $10.55 billion. This reflects an uptick in the volume of various agricultural exports and the price surge in some products. 

The top exported products by value include citrus, nuts, maize, apples and pears, wine, fruit juices, sugar, dates, figs, avocados and mangos, berries and grapes.

Last, the commitment to policy continuity after the formation of the government of national unity is also a noteworthy development for South Africa’s agriculture. Ordinarily, when a new government begins its term, there would be a temptation to introduce new policies and programmes. At times, such practices are justified. 

But the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan has already been formulated and embraced by business, labour, government and other social partners. There was no need for introducing a new policy, and the seventh administration has committed to continuity and a sharper focus on the implementation of policy and programmes. 

Among other things, this is also why the sentiment in the sector improved notably in recent months. 

Looking ahead to 2025

As we start 2025, there is renewed optimism in the sector on the back of relatively better rainfall and improvements in the animal disease control front. This may boost the output in the sector.

From a policy perspective, this year’s focus should remain on the opening of export markets, improvement of the network industries and improving municipality performance. 

Moreover, there also needs to be a relentless focus on implementing the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan because it carries relevant and necessary interventions to support the inclusive growth of South Africa’s agricultural sector.

Wandile Sihlobo is an agricultural economist.