Cracketology: Anatomy of a 1-Seed
Photo by Mike De Sisti | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
When Shaka Smart led Marquette to a 2-seed in 2023 it was the highest NCAA Tournament seed in school history. As Marquette began the 2023-24 campaign ranked in the top-4, there was optimism they could improve upon that and earn a 1-seed, but ultimately they again landed on the second line. This season many expected the team to step back, but they have maintained their level of play and are currently in line for a 2-seed once again, though it's still early in the season from a bracket perspective.
So what would it take to improve upon that and earn the first 1-seed in Marquette history? Today we dig into the resumes of 1-seeds in the NET era to see what it would take for Marquette to get there. Of course, the first question many will ask is why it matters. Quite simply, 1-seeds are a lot more likely to win the NCAA Tournament. No team lower than an 8-seed has won it all. Here's a list of the number of champions by seed:
While earning a 1-seed is far from guaranteeing a title (especially as there are four of them every year) it stands out that 1-seeds have won nearly twice as many titles as all other seeds combined. This follows logically because 1-seeds tend to have the best paths in terms of both geography and quality of competition.
With that in mind, what will it take this year? For starters, let's look at the resumes of all the 1-seeds in the NET era, then we can identify a few commonalities. We are including 2020 because while there was no Tournament held, the four 1-seeds were obvious and they had completed seasons up to the end of conference play.
Record: With the exception of the COVID-shortened 2021 season, every 1-seed has had at least 26 wins, and most have had 27+ (85%). The loss column is even more notable. No 1-seed has more than 7 losses, but it's also worth noting that no high-major team with 4 or fewer losses has failed to earn a 1-seed. This year, Marquette will likely need a Selection Sunday record of 29-5 or 30-4 to earn a 1-seed because the Big East isn't as strong as it often is, so keeping up with the high-powered SEC resumes will require extra punch in the win column.
Quadrant Records: In Quadrant 1, 22/24 (91.7%) teams to earn 1-seeds had at least twice as many Q1 wins as they did losses, and the only exceptions were in the first year of the NET, 2019. In Quadrant 2, no more than 1 loss is advisable, as only two teams have earned 1-seeds with 2+ Q2 losses. Losses in Q3 and Q4 are virtually forbidden, as only one team (2023 Houston) had a loss outside the first two Quadrants and earned a 1-seed.
Analytic Rankings: This is where Marquette at #11 in the NET needs work. Every team ranked #1 or #2 in the NET has earned a 1-seed and 20/24 (83.3%) were in the NET top-5. No team with a double-digit NET has earned a 1-seed. In terms of the other metric averages, ranking inside the top-4 in both is ideal, but at least one is pretty much required. 12/24 (50%) teams ranked top-4 in both but 21/24 (87.5%) were top-4 in at least one of the two averages. No team has ranked lower than 10 in any average and earned a 1-seed.
Strength of Schedule: This doesn't need to be elite, but it does need to be strong. In terms of overall SOS, 23/24 (95.8%) have ranked in the top-60 overall, but non-con SOS is even less important, with 17/24 in the top-60. Marquette's current 19 NCSOS builds a solid foundation that will likely keep them in that top-60 overall.
Championships: Before Selection Sunday, a couple things need to happen. First, you either need to win your league regular season or you need to only finish behind other 1-seeds. In the instances where a team was not at least sharing their regular season conference title, they were ranked #2 or #3 and everyone ahead of them in their league was also a 1-seed. In terms of the conference tournament, 15/21 teams to play a conference tournament made it to the Championship Game, and 20/21 at least made the semifinals.
So what does Marquette's resume look like, and what would it need to look like? Because we're talking about earning a 1-seed, we are going to assume Marquette will win the Big East Tournament Final. This means based on current NET rankings they would still play eight Q1 games, six Q2 games, four Q3 games, and one Q4 game. Here's what the current resume looks like and what it would likely need to look like on Selection Sunday:
Obviously this outcome requires a lot of optimism, but not impossible levels of optimism. If you look at the current game-by-game projections in kenpom, Marquette is favored to win every game except UConn on the road (projected 1-point loss). On an aggregate percentage, the league record is expected to be 16-4, but if Marquette could split the difference on the positive side between the 19-1 game-by-game projection and the 16-4 percentage projection to land at 18-2 in Big East play, a 1-seed would certainly be on the table. They also project to be favored in any game at the Big East Tournament.
Going 17-2 from here on out is certainly unlikely. It essentially means Marquette cannot slip up in any remaining games. Earning a 1-seed is very difficult. But the difficulty reflects its value and why the championship odds increase so much for teams that get there. You have to be really good, and really good teams tend to be the ones that win the NCAA Tournament. Can Marquette get there? Right now, no one knows, but at least now you know what to hope for in order for Marquette to secure the first 1-seed in program history.
Here's the updated S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 12
Big 10: 11
Big 12: 7
ACC: 5
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
Mountain West: 2
A-10: 2