College Football Playoff picks: Breaking down the (NFL Draft) talent disparity in the semifinal matchups
Expansion of the College Football Playoff to a 12-team, tournament-style event has led some to describe the upcoming round of competition as the sport’s Final Four.
You won’t see that reference on the Hotline, ever. There is only one rightful Final Four, and it’s played in early April.
But the football and basketball semifinal rounds have one thing in common: Talent is paramount.
Coaching, chemistry and momentum can carry a team only so far. At this point, personnel typically dictates the outcome. Bigger and faster beats smaller and slower.
With that approach in mind, we consulted the Pro Football Focus ranking of the top 100 NFL Draft prospects to determine which CFP semifinalists hold the edge in talent.
There’s a decisive advantage and no advantage.
Both Notre Dame and Penn State, which meet Thursday in the Orange Bowl, have three players ranked in the PFF top 100.
Both Ohio State and Texas, which collide Friday in the Cotton Bowl, have 10 players in the top 100.
So while the talent is effectively equal in each semifinal, the Cotton Bowl winner will have a significant advantage in the national championship.
Then again, the best player left in the CFP isn’t among the top 100 prospects. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is only a freshman.
To the picks …
Last week: 2-2
Season: 74-60-2
Five-star special: 9-8
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from VegasInsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Penn State (+2) vs. Notre Dame (Orange Bowl)
Kickoff: Thursday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: This feels like a matchup out of the 1980s, with two storied programs featuring stout defenses and punishing running games destined for a 24-21 or 20-17 outcome. We view Notre Dame as slightly superior but wonder about the disparity in preparation. Penn State played on New Year’s Eve, while the Irish faced Georgia on Jan. 2 because of the Sugar Bowl postponement following the terror attack in New Orleans. After waffling for days, the Hotline opted to ignore the Nittany Lions’ edge in rest and go with our gut. Pick: Notre Dame
Texas (+6) vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)
Kickoff: Friday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: When operating on all cylinders, the Buckeyes are at least one touchdown better than everyone else. Is there any reason to expect a diminished version of the powerhouse we saw in the Rose Bowl? Probably not. Coach Ryan Day and playcaller Chip Kelly learned from their momentous mistake in the Michigan game and have prioritized the passing game, with Smith as the centerpiece. Also, we’re skeptical that Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers can make the necessary plays against a ferocious OSU pass rush. Pick: Ohio State
Straight-up winners: Notre Dame and Ohio State
Five-star special: Ohio State. If Arizona State scored 31 points and gained 510 yards on the Longhorns, what will the Buckeyes do?
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline