Musk emerges as Trump foreign policy wild card

Elon Musk has increasingly waded into foreign politics from the perch of his social platform X — a development that experts say likely raises questions for U.S. allies about his role in foreign policy, and stir frustration within the incoming Trump administration.

Musk, who has become a central player in President-elect Trump's inner circle since backing his presidential bid last year, has thrown his weight behind far-right parties in both the United Kingdom and Germany in recent weeks. 

"Certainly there's an interdependent relationship between Musk and Trump, as we saw during the U.S. presidential election," said Garret Martin, co-director of American University's Transatlantic Policy Center. "I think Musk has a rather large megaphone with X. He has a large number of followers, and he has deep pockets. So I think it's a rather helpful tool." 

"But, you know, Musk is a bit of a loose cannon. I mean, he seems to be following his own ambitions and his own goals, which may not always be exactly identical to those of Trump. So for that reason, I think it's really a double-edged sword."

A spokesperson for the Trump transition did not respond to a request for comment.

Since pouring at least $250 million into Trump’s campaign, Musk has become a fixture at Trump’s side. The tech billionaire is set to co-chair the brand-new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) in the incoming administration, dedicated to slashing government costs. 

However, Musk’s role seems to go far beyond the cost-cutting commission, with the Tesla and SpaceX CEO reportedly joining Trump on calls with foreign leaders since the election. 

“I think that foreign governments are watching it and trying to figure out where the balance of power is within Trump World. They take Musk more seriously than just a billionaire mouthing off, but they don't regard it necessarily as policy,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried.  

With Musk an increasingly prominent fixture in Trump World, foreign governments and close U.S. allies are following his comments closely and trying to figure out where the center of the Trump administration is likely to be, Fried said. 

“Is it going to be with Elon Musk or Donald Trump Jr. on the one hand or is it going to be with people like Mike Waltz, [Alex] Wong, Marco Rubio on the other?” he said, referring to Trump's nominees for national security adviser, deputy national security adviser and secretary of State, respectively.

“We don't know yet.” 

“Musk is going to have a kind of advisory job as the head of this Department of Government Efficiency, and we'll see if this amounts to much, and he'll be a part of the circle of people around Trump,” Fried added. “He'll always have some input, but not necessarily just positive.” 

Daniel Hamilton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe, similarly suggested that Musk’s involvement is adding to the confusion surrounding the Trump transition. 

“Musk is not an employee of Donald Trump,” Hamilton noted. “He obviously operates his own platform on X and is using the platform to engage now directly into domestic politics in European countries.”  

“It simply adds to the speculation, confusion, and chaos surrounding the transition from Biden to Trump and what the president-elect will do once he assumes office,” he added. 

However, many foreign policy experts have noted that there are complicated power dynamics within any administration.

Along with the national security adviser and secretary of State, the Commerce and Treasury departments each play key roles in aspects of foreign policy.

The real question is just how much influence Musk will have come Jan. 20, said Lindsay Gorman, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, and whether it will be limited to his work on DOGE or extend into foreign policy.

Gorman added that "if Musk's foreign policy posts continue, Rubio and the rest of the State Department will have to deal with the blowback from that and from world leaders asking, 'Does this represent U.S. policy? How much does it represent U.S. policy? How much is Musk going to be taken seriously?'" 

"There are always these internal power dynamics, but adding in Musk as an unelected, unappointed unofficial adviser whispering in Trump's ear and potentially taking meetings for him is just going to complicate the situation even further, both within the administration itself and also for allies and partners,” she said to The Hill. 

If Trump gives the signal that Musk is speaking for him, Gorman added, “there's going to be a question on who the allies and partners really should be targeting with their messaging, and they might just choose both Rubio and Musk.” 

Musk has recently voiced support for the far-right Reform Party in the U.K., writing on X last week that “Only Reform can save Britain.” He also has taken aim at Prime Minister Keir Starmer, criticizing the Labour Party leader’s tenure as director of public prosecutions and his handling of a grooming scandal. 

However, the tech billionaire broke with Reform Party leader Nigel Farage on Sunday, calling for his ouster amid an apparent disagreement over far-right activist Tommy Robinson. 

In Germany, Musk has backed Alternative for Germany (AfD), a political party that German authorities have suspected of potential right-wing extremism, ahead of snap elections in the country next month. 

In an op-ed in the German Welt am Sonntag newspaper late last month, Musk argued that AfD is the “last spark of hope” for Germany, which he suggested is teetering on “the brink of economic and cultural collapse.” 

He pointed to his “significant investments in Germany's industrial and technological landscape” in arguing that he has the “right to speak openly about its political orientation.” 

Tesla opened its first European manufacturing plant outside Berlin in 2022. Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg cost the electric vehicle maker about $7 billion to build and was expected to produce 500,000 cars a year, according to The New York Times.

Fried added that it’s unclear whether Musk’s recent attacks on Starmer and Germany were cleared by the president-elect's team. 

“I don't know the degree to which Elon Musk cleared any of these ideas with Team Trump. And Team Trump encompasses a wide spectrum of views," Fried added.

Gorman believes China policy is where there is the most potential for consequential foreign policy divergence.

"Elon Musk has deep business ties to China, much like other tech CEOs, but especially with manufacturing and Tesla in China.” 

China is a major market for Musk’s Tesla, which also owns a factory in Shanghai.