Guardians Spring Training Preview Right Field Battle
Big Christmas, Willy Two-Bags, and CDL
The Guardians will be again searching to fill the hole in right field they’ve been trying to address since Michael Brantley left after 2017. Let’s take a look at some of the potential answers who will get a chance to seize the role this Spring:
The Betting Favorites: A Platoon of Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel
Will Brennan has a career 104 wRC+ against RHP with a 12.5/4.8 K/BB%. Technically, that is above average production against right-handers. He was also very good defensively in right-field in 2023... and terrible defensively there in 2024. He had a 122 wRC+ in Columbus in 2022 and was 15 of 16 in stolen bases. He seems like an amazing person and has a projection of 104 wRC+ by Steamer. I have said now all the nice things I can about Will Brennan.
Brennan had a disappointing 2024 with only a 98 wRC+ in the regular season and then an atrocious postseason where he struck out 33% of the time, walked zero times, and made a disastrous error in right field and misplayed another ball. He was replaced by Daniel Schneemann if that helps understand how badly things went awry. It is very possible that Brennan may be an average hitter against RHP and solid defensively in right field. Personally, I would like the Guardians to try to get more from this slot on the roster than what Brennan is likely to provide, but I will root hard for him to prove me wrong. He should definitely NEVER bat against LHP, however.
It’s impossible not to root for Jhonkensy Noel to get a healthy dose of at-bats in right field, especially with LHP’s on the mound against whom he had a 165 wRC+ in 2024. He had 1 Defensive Run Saved and only -3 Outs Above Average in right field defensively, where he showed an admirable willingness to work at improvement. He obviously had one of the biggest moments in recent Cleveland playoff history against the Yankees in his monster game-tying 9th inning home run. Big Christmas is the best nickname in baseball and it’s impossible to watch an interview with him and not love him. He’s our reward for suffering the heartbreak of Franmil Reyes washing out.
Speaking of big, however, the elephant in the room is that Jhonk had a 46.9% out-of-zone swing rate in 2024. Of qualified hitters in MLB, only Boston’s Rafaela, Colorado’s Tovar, Kansas City’s Salvy Perez, Houston’s Yainer Diaz, Texas’s Burger, Philadelphia’s Castellanos, Toronto’s Gimenez, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez, and Baltimore’s Mountcastle will enter 2025 having 2024 out-of-zone chase rates over 40%. Tovar, Gimenez and Rafaela add defensive value that helps mitigate their chase issues. But, each of the other six hitters were at least above average hitters in 2024. The problem Noel faces is that he also has only a 50% contact rate when he does swing out of zone. Burger and Castellanos are in that neighborhood, so there IS a path for Jhonk to be an above average hitter as a regular, but it’s a narrow one. The way is to hit the snot out of the ball when you do make contact, which Jhonk does... and he also pulls fly balls at a better rate than either Burger or Castellanos do. (Burger and Castellanos are at around 40% for pull and fly ball rates, and Noel is at 50% fly ball rate and 58% pull rate).
Obviously, it will make a big difference for Noel if he can even decrease his chase rate by 5-7% and/or increase his out-of-zone contact by 5-10%. Maybe that happens as he gets more experience! ...Or, maybe big league pitchers find more ways to exploit his tendency to chase, in which case he won’t last as a major leaguer. But, we’re talking Spring Training here so let’s let our dream live happily that Noel is capable of putting up some of the great seasons we have seen from Salvy Perez and Nick Castellanos at the plate while playing a competent right field. I’d take that and a career wRC+ ending up around 110.
If this is the plan, I think the team gives themself a reasonable chance of getting 115 wrC+ combined from right field, with Brennan hitting vs RHP and Noel hitting mostly vs. LHP. But, it’s very, very hard for me to see the ceiling for more than that, barring Noel unlocking plate discipline abilities heretofore unseen in Big Christmas’s pro career.
The International League MVP: Johnathan Rodriguez
Johnny Rockets debuted with the Guardians for 13 games in 2024 and it didn’t go well. But, that’s not unusual for a rookie. He managed a 140 wRC+ in his first full season with Columbus (had 47 games with them in 2023), hit 29 homers, and put up a 25.2/12.6 K/BB%. The problems, of course, revolve around his groundball rate north of 50% at Triple-A, and generally his swing-and-miss which put him at only around 79% in-zone contact rate at Triple-A (ML average is 85) and at around 50% contact rate when he chases (around 30% of the time). These problems should remind you of Gabriel Arias because they are very similar to his numbers. Rodriguez combines these foibles with looking very poor defensively. He has a good arm, but that’s about it, unfortunately.
I find it tough to believe that Rodriguez will be a good major league player. But, if Noel and Thomas get hurt, I’d be fine seeing him as a platoon hitter against left-handed pitching. I hope the 25 year old proves me wrong, as 25 year-olds often can, but it’ll require him to make more consistent contact and get some additional lift if it happens.
The People’s Champ: Chase DeLauter
Let’s get the negative out of the way - DeLauter has had a variety of foot-related problems that have limited him to only 96 professional games (add in 48 more games in the Arizona Fall League and Major League Spring Training, if you like) in two years. These injuries will likely limit him to corner outfield duty, if not first base/DH. He also only has an OPS around .600 in the minors versus left-handed pitching.
Ok, now let’s get to the exciting stuff - DeLauter has a 147 wRC+ with a 12.8/10.8 K/BB% as a minor league hitter. He had a 307 wRC+ in Spring Training and an OPS in the .950 range between two seasons in the Arizona Fall League. His swinging strike rate last season was a miniscule 5.8% and he has a fly ball rate above 40% and a pull rate above 45%. When he’s on the field, this kid just hits and hits and hits.
He has an unorthodox, sawed-off swing that has some scouts concerned about how he will handle high velocity up-in-the-zone in the big leagues. I say it’s time to throw him in the deep end of the pool and see if he can swim. I think it’s fairly certain he can at least equal Will Brennan’s 104 wRC+ against RHP with the ceiling for a lot more, and you don’t have to feel bad about playing him only 3-4 days a week when you’re giving Noel those other at-bats. If DeLauter is healthy, the Guardians should give him a real shot to make the team out of Spring Training. He will be on every MLB top 100 list, so they will then give themselves a shot at a high compensation pick if he happens to win rookie of the year. Additionally, Will Brennan has minor-league options remaining, so, if DeLauter struggles, the safe floor will remain there as the team needs it.
The Dark Horse(s): Lane Thomas as the Right Fielder and Angel Martinez as the Center Fielder
For his career, Lane Thomas has a 103 wRC+. In September-October, he was around a 125 wRC+ for Cleveland. He has a good arm, but has not been good defensively in right field. But, I could see a world where Thomas is given a chance to be the main guy in right field, especially if the team wants Noel to start in Columbus. This would give the team a chance to look further at Angel Martinez as a centerfielder, who, in a small sample, looked better than either Freeman or Thomas at the position. He has better plate discipline than any of the other internal options and managed a 19.5/8.9 K/BB% at the big league level. From his minor league numbers, he looks like he has a good shot to be a 40% fly ball and 45% pull rate guy, which should help him get to some more power. He’s also still only 22 years old, a switch-hitter with solid minor-league splits, and seems like a great kid.
The problem with all this is that in over 1200 innings in centerfield, Thomas grades out much better there defensively than he does in right field. Why is anyone’s guess. If he is an average centerfielder who can be a 105-110 wRC+, that’s a 3 win player. Hard for me to see how the best plan isn’t for Thomas to be the centerfielder and Martinez and Petey Halpin to be his backups there at Columbus in case of injury or inexplicable collapse.
The Longest of Longshots: George Valera
From August 1st, 2024 until he tore his knee to end his season on September 10th, George Valera put up a 124 wRC+ with 26.9/13.4 K/BB%. His max exit velocity of 113.1 stands out, and he has decent ability to pull fly balls (37% fly ball, 48% pull). This would be the spring for Valera to make the roster as a strongside platoon option if he wasn’t so snake-bitten by injuries. Thankfully, he returned to the Guardians on a minor-league free agent deal, so if he manages to make a full recovery from knee surgery, he has a chance to emerge as an option for the team in the summer. But, this is obviously nothing the team should count on; just a nice dream to shelve until you need it.
Additional Options: I would not be surprised to see the Guardians bring an outfielder into Spring Training as a non-roster invitee; Jason Heyward (career 114 wRC+ vs. RHP), David Peralta (career 117 wRC+ vs RHP), or Mark Canha (career 116 wRC+ vs RHP) come to mind, if any of the above fail to find a major league deal somewhere. Heyward and Canha are 35 years old, and Peralta is 37, so there are no guarantees, but, personally, I’d love to see Canha be brought into camp if he doesn’t get a major league deal from anyone, and get a chance to win the job.
Of course, the Guardians could also still pursue a trade, maybe landing one of those Cardinaks’ outfielders like Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, or Alec Burleson, or the Dodgers' James Outman. But, I can’t really predict that happening with any optimism. Maybe the Giants sign Anthony Santander and then trade Mike Yastrzemski (119 wRC+ for his career vs RHP) to the Guardians to play right field. Maybe the Marlins' sell-off continues and they trade Jesus Sanchez (112 wRC+ vs RHP for his career) for some Guardians' prospects? Any number of combinations could still be possible... but we just don’t know. For what it’s worth, I would be very surprised if the Guardians signed Santander or Jesse Winker, so I wouldn’t spend time dreaming on whatever those two players might offer a team.
Bottom Line:
I expect Will Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel to open as the team’s right fielders, but I do think there will be a veteran in camp to push Brennan (Canha is my guy, if he gets to NRI status) and I do think Noel will get plenty of at-bats against right-handed pitching. I would say I am reasonably optimistic that if DeLauter can show himself to be fully healthy and puts up another Spring like he did in 2024, he may force the Guardians’ hand and make the team like Steven Kwan did in 2022. But, it’s far more likely they will have reasons to tell him to get things going in Columbus and then revisit calling him up if he is raking in May. By the time Memorial Day hits, if DeLauter is healthy, I’d be very surprised if the Guardians’ right-field duties aren’t split between him and Noel. And that should make for a very exciting, if also scary, season for Guardians’ fans.