Since the November US presidential elections, Apple’s Tim Cook, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son, and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos have made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago. The CEOs congratulated Trump on his victory, and many have donated to his inauguration ceremony.

In return, most hope for either a reduction of regulation or regulation that will help their companies. Although the incoming President looks like a cryptocurrency champion and is set to reinforce an export crackdown on China, the incoming administration’s attitude to tech, from antitrust to AI, remains unclear.

Only one outcome looks inevitable – a clash with Europe.

Competition

Under Joe Biden, the Federal government filed antitrust suits against Amazon, Apple, and Google. A judge ruled that Google had abused its search monopoly and that the government demanded that the company be broken up.

Key Democrats leading this anti-trust charge, Federal Trade Commissioner Chair Lina Khan and Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kantor, are expected to leave. Some speculate that the Trump administration might look to resolve the significant monopoly cases.

But that is far from certain. Vice President-elect JD Vance expressed support for Khan. The incoming Republican antitrust chiefs, Andrew Ferguson at the FTC and Gail Slater at the Justice Department signal what Winston & Straw law firm predicts to be “a continued focus on a populist antitrust agenda aimed at regulating and curbing the power of major technology firms.”

A wildcard could be Europe’s antitrust actions. Under the new Digital Markets Act, the US “gatekeepers” face enormous potential fines and limitations on their business. While the Biden administration did not oppose the European crackdown, America First Trump may see it as discrimination. Apple CEO Tim Cook called Trump to complain about the EU’s efforts to claw back allegedly unpaid tax from the company — €13bn — and its decision to fine the firm €1.8bn for suffocating competition on its App Store. The incoming president said he would not let the EU “take advantage of our companies.”

European officials reject the characterization of their antitrust investigations as anti-American. Most of the companies complaining about the US gatekeepers are themselves American, they point out. During his first term, they add, Trump launched antitrust suits against the large Silicon Valley companies.

AI is (not?) scary  

Although the incoming President has highlighted concerns about the potential risks AI poses to jobs and national security, Trump vowed on the campaign trail to eliminate Biden’s executive order controls for AI development, AI-generated bias, and cloud service providers “on day one.”

The US AI Safety Institute’s fate remains uncertain, though tech is pushing to keep it in place. In October, Microsoft and Google, among others, signed a letter urging Congress to authorize the institute permanently.

In contrast, Europe is moving ahead with its binding AI Act. US companies are delaying launches of AI products on the continent.

Crypto

After a series of spectacular scandals, including the collapse of the FTX exchange, the Biden administration cracked down on crypto, filing criminal charges against many crypto leaders. Trump himself initially shared the skepticism. In 2019, he called Bitcoin a “scam,” expressing concerns that it could undermine the value of the dollar.

Since then, he has completed a 180-degree turn. The crypto industry generously donated to the Trump campaign and Eric Trump has promised the “most pro-crypto president” in history. After Trump’s victory, cryptocurrency surged to its highest level ever, with Bitcoin surging above $100,000. Paul Atkins, a crypto advocate, will head the Securities and Exchange Commission, replacing Gary Gensler, a crypto critic.

Europe is moving in the opposite direction. Its new Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation came into effect on December 30 and set strict guardrails. Analysts expect a migration of crypto activity across the Atlantic.

China

Trump has vowed new tariffs, sanctions, and pressure to decouple from China. Europe, while willing to “derisk” from China, fears a flood of Chinese exports, cut off from the US market.

Ironically, a China crackdown could cause a split with some of Trump’s most fervent European right-wing admirers. Hungary’s Victor Orban is vigorously courting Chinese investment, particularly in electric vehicles.

Europe is also divided about how hard to confront China. Germany, the continent’s strongest exporter, worries about losing the lucrative Chinese market and opposed a recent EU decision to increase tariffs on Chinese cars.

And Trump’s anti-Chinese crusade is far from finished. Over the holidays, he petitioned the US Supreme Court to delay an upcoming TikTok ban while he works on a “political resolution.”

Free Speech

Perhaps the biggest transatlantic clash could come over content moderation. The US First Amendment privileges free speech. One can deny the Holocaust. In Europe, hate speech is outlawed. One goes to jail for Holocaust denial.

Trump accuses Facebook and Google of being biased against conservative viewpoints. He has been a vocal critic of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which provides legal immunity to online platforms for content posted by their users, arguing that it allows social media companies to censor conservative voices without consequence.

In contrast, Europe’s new Digital Services Act increases the responsibility of companies to control illegal speech such as Holocaust denial. Regulators accuse platforms of being too lax about the information they host, including allowing posts that stoked political violence in Britain and spread hate in Germany and France. Brussels is already investigating TikTok for election interference in the recent Romanian presidential election. The vote was annulled after accusations of Russian meddling and the victory of pro-Russia ultranationalist Calin Georgescu in the first round.

Tech companies will find themselves squeezed. If they move to satisfy Trump, they will anger European regulators. Meta, in particular, could find itself in the crosshairs. It ended a longstanding fact-checking program. Instead of using news organizations and other third-party groups, Meta will rely on users to add notes or corrections to posts that may contain false or misleading information.

That may please Trump. It will be hard to explain to European regulators.

The X Factor

Elon Musk is one of the incoming President’s biggest funders and closest advisors. He owns the X social media network, which banned Trump after the January 6 attack on the US Congress, but reinstated him after Musk’s takeover.

In Europe, X faces fines of up to 6% of the firm’s global revenue under the DSA for failing to tackle illegal content. Incoming Vice President JD Vance has even suggested that the US could halt NATO funding if the EU goes after X, as he reacted to a warning letter sent to the company by former EU Commissioner Thierry Breton.

That threat may be hyperbole. But Europeans should expect angry words – and potential actions – targeting European overregulation and alleged discrimination of US tech champions.

Bill Echikson is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and editor of the Bandwidth Blog.

Bandwidth is CEPA’s online journal dedicated to advancing transatlantic cooperation on tech policy. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.

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