Blue Alert: Why Democrats are poised to win in 2028 and 2032

The Republican Party will find itself at a critical crossroads as the 2028 election approaches.

Despite the doom and gloom narrative from Democrats, they are in a far stronger position than many in the GOP would care to admit. In fact, we believe Democrats are poised as favorites not only for 2028 but also for 2032. The reasons for this go beyond rhetoric — they are deeply rooted in history and strategic realities.

The Democrats’ potential dream team could be Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) at the top of the ticket with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) as his running mate. This pairing isn’t just formidable — it’s a strategic masterpiece. Together, Shapiro and Whitmer have the appeal to solidify the so-called blue wall — the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that has been pivotal in presidential elections since George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988.

History shows that winning these three states essentially guarantees the presidency. This ticket would energize suburban voters, particularly women, and strengthen turnout in urban centers, creating an electoral map that leaves the GOP with few viable paths to victory.

The Republican Party faces two significant electoral hurdles in 2028. First, there’s the Nebraska dilemma. Republicans must secure the extra electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd District. By moving Nebraska to a winner-take-all system, Republicans could lock in all five electoral votes for the GOP. Such a shift could be crucial in a close race and might even decide the election in a 269-269 tie.

The second challenge is the potential MAGA drop-off. MAGA voters are as fervently loyal as Reagan Revolution voters were in the 1980s. But when Reagan wasn’t on the ballot in 1988, the GOP suffered a staggering 10.4 percent drop in turnout — 6 million fewer Republican voters. A similar 10.4 percent decline in MAGA turnout from 2024 to 2028 would equate to an 8 million vote loss, leaving Republicans struggling to compete in swing states. Without Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, energizing MAGA voters will be a monumental challenge.

President Trump’s second-term strategy of appointing high-profile members of Congress to his Cabinet adds another layer of risk for the Republicans. While this strengthens his administration, it leaves vulnerable seats in the House of Representatives. These vacancies, often filled by less-established candidates, are more likely to flip in competitive districts. With the Republican majority in the House already slim, losing these seats could pave the way for Democrats to reclaim House control in the 2026 midterms. Historically, midterms favor the party not in control of the White House. If Republicans lose the House, Trump could become a lame duck for the back half of his term.

A Democratic-controlled House would stall his agenda and hand Democrats a strategic advantage heading into 2028. The loss of House control could also weaken grassroots fundraising and organizing efforts, hampering Republican performance down-ballot in 2028. Additionally, it would give Democrats significant leverage to define the political agenda, while Republicans are forced into a defensive posture.

Looking to 2028, JD Vance is the current favorite to win the Republican nomination. His candidacy, however, comes with risks. Historically, sitting vice presidents have struggled to win the presidency. Kamala Harris’s defeat in 2024 reinforces this pattern; only one sitting vice president (the elder Bush) has won the presidency since 1836. If Vance inherits this “curse,” his path to victory becomes even steeper.

Beyond history, Vance must also unite a fractured Republican Party. He will need to appeal not only to traditional conservatives but also to suburban voters and the MAGA base. This balancing act has proven difficult for post-Trump Republican leaders, and failure to navigate it could lead to lackluster turnout.

Democrats are not only positioned to win in 2028; they are likely to hold the White House in 2032 as well. Historically, it’s rare to see four consecutive new presidents. The streak of Trump (2016), Biden (2020), Trump again (2024), and a new president in 2028 already puts us in uncharted territory. A Democrat elected in 2028 would likely secure reelection in 2032, as continuity tends to favor incumbents.

Demographics also tilt the map in Democrats’ favor. Urbanization, younger voters, and an increasingly diverse electorate are strengthening their coalition. If Republicans fail to expand their appeal to these groups, their path to victory in 2028, and beyond, narrows further.

For Republicans, winning in 2028 requires a clear, strategic plan. First, the party must address the potential MAGA drop-off by emphasizing the broader conservative movement rather than relying solely on Trump’s personality-driven base. Turnout strategies must target new and disenchanted voters.

Second, Republicans need to secure states like Nebraska and hold swing states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Third, the Republicans must invest heavily in competitive districts to prevent losses in the 2026 midterms. Retaining control of the House is critical to maintaining legislative momentum and ensuring a favorable narrative heading into 2028.

Fourth, the Republican nominee must articulate a vision that resonates with all factions of the party while appealing to swing voters. Unity within the party is non-negotiable.

Fifth, Republicans must offer solutions to pressing issues like health care, education and the economy. A compelling policy agenda is key to winning over suburban and independent voters.

Finally, Trump’s influence has reshaped Republican politics, but the party must prepare for a future where he is no longer on the ballot. Identifying and elevating leaders who can inherit and adapt his appeal will be critical.

The Republican Party's path to victory in 2028 is narrow but achievable. Ignoring the looming challenges — MAGA voter attrition, the Shapiro-Whitmer threat and vulnerabilities in the House, would be a catastrophic mistake.

The Reagan to Bush drop-off in 1988 offers a stark warning: a 10.4 percent voter decline that cost the GOP millions of votes. A similar occurrence in 2028 could be disastrous. If Republicans fail to adapt, the consequences won’t just be losing the next election but ceding a generation of political dominance to the Democrats. The stakes could not be higher.

Gary D. Alexander is a former secretary of Health and Human Services for two Republican governors and a policy analyst specializing in government reform and health care innovation. Rick Cunningham is an entrepreneur and Republican strategist with expertise in electoral politics, grassroots organizing and campaign strategy.