Trump plans to slash jobs at NOAA. That could make it riskier to fly

If you’re feeling a little apprehensive about your next flight because of Trump administration policies, that’s not unreasonable—and not just because Elon Musk and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency fired hundreds of workers at the FAA, including some whose roles supported air safety, according to a union representing workers. Now, job cuts are imminent at NOAA, the agency in charge of weather forecasting—which supports air travel with critical data and analysis around the clock.

NOAA’s work “isn’t a ‘nice’ thing to have—this is an absolute essential for aviation,” says Rick Spinrad, who served as NOAA administrator until January. “I would argue that NOAA’s weather information is as important as jet fuel to the aviation industry. You can’t fly without it.”

The agency has 22 weather service units around the country that provide detailed analysis and support to FAA air traffic controllers as the weather changes. “They provide all of the information that’s used to make predictions about delays, times, flight times, optimal routes for the aircraft, and this has been done for decades,” Spinrad says. “That’s one critical function. There are literally hundreds of NOAA weather service employees who are involved in providing that information to the FAA. This is not just when there’s a storm. This is all the time, 24/7/365.”

NOAA also operates and maintains hundreds of automated observation systems at airports that track things like precipitation, cloud cover, and temperature so the FAA can clear flights for landing and takeoff.

The agency also tracks weather in space, including solar flares and geomagnetic storms that can disrupt GPS navigation and communication systems. “NOAA has the responsibility for space weather forecasts,” Spinrad says. “We’ve seen that being used to redirect flights. If you’re flying from San Francisco to New York, if there’s a solar storm and it may impact GPS, your flight may be redirected to the south.”

Internal weather teams at major airlines also rely on NOAA data. So do the private companies that offer weather forecasting; it’s not the case that NOAA’s work in this area could be easily replaced. “There really is no substitute,” says Spinrad. “NOAA is the primary source.”

“If NOAA gets broken up and privatized, like Project 2025 recommends, the threats to aviation safety will increase dramatically,” says Jeff Masters, the cofounder of Weather Underground, who now writes for Yale Climate Connections. “The aviation industry heavily relies on NWS forecasts for safety. While private companies add value, they ultimately build on the foundation of NWS-provided weather information, and the years-long transition period to a system where private companies do aviation forecasting would bring chaotic and unpredictable consequences to a system that needs utmost stability. ‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!’ definitely applies here.”

In fact, private weather companies have been successful because of their reliance on NOAA forecasts, Spinrad wrote in a recent LinkedIn post:

It’s NOAA that operates 122 Doppler weather radars, 16 environmental satellites, 15 ships (that provide accurate nautical charts and sustainable seafood), and 10 airplanes (including the Hurricane Hunters, and the planes that monitor atmospheric rivers). Without NOAA, someone would have to pick up the bill for all of those assets, and their continuing operations and maintenance costs. And that someone will be the privileged few willing to pay the private sector the fees and subscriptions that would have to be charged… Wanna know when that hurricane’s going to make landfall, or where those tornadoes are going? Pay up.

It’s not clear yet which specific jobs at NOAA will be cut. (A NOAA spokesperson said that the agency could not discuss internal personnel and management matters based on long-standing policy.) But it was arguably already understaffed: The agency has around 12,000 employees now, which is small for its duties. Spinrad argues that it needs around 5,000 more workers to fully meet its mission.