One last look at the Oscars Best Picture race: ‘Anora’ vs. ‘Conclave’ is a battle of polar opposites

Talk about polar opposites. The Oscar contest between Anora and Conclave is a face-off between arguably the most dissimilar Best Picture nominees in history.

Whether the top prize will go to either the film about a sex worker in Brooklyn or the one about a papal debate at the Vatican is a showdown for the ages. Sure, the 1967 Oscars saw In the Heat of the Night and Bonnie and Clyde go up against Doctor Dolittle, yet the chat-with-the-animals musical was never a serious contender. The same goes for the 1977 Oscars, when Star Wars had a dogfight with more Earth-bound flicks (including the winner, Annie Hall), and the 1992 Oscars, when The Silence of the Lambs chomped Beauty and the Beast — all diverse matchups, except no one honestly thought C3PO or Lumiere the candlestick had a shot.

The last time such different Best Picture front-runners each had an actual chance was perhaps the 2000 Oscars when Gladiator fought Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in a battle of ancient Rome vs. Qing dynasty China. But nothing compares to the two worlds Anora and Conclave represent.

And it truly feels as if things could tilt either way in a few hours, especially after the significant guild awards ratcheted up the heat.

On Feb. 8, the Directors Guild gave Anora’s Sean Baker the award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement, while the Producers Guild anointed Anora Best Feature Film. (A week later, the Writers Guild declared Baker’s script the Best Original Screenplay.)

Then on Feb. 16, the BAFTA awards set their cap for Conclave, bestowing it the Best Picture honor — and last Sunday, the Screen Actors Guild followed suit, awarding Conclave Best Ensemble Cast.

All these accolades can be precursors of victory. So, as Anora herself might say, “What the f—?!”

In Conclave’s corner: The actors’ branch of the Academy (most of whom are also SAG-AFTRA members) make up the lion’s share of AMPAS’s 9,900-plus voting members. Add to that the BAFTA-AMPAS crossover, and it seems like a divine bit of math. Yet DGA and PGA wins are also often predictors of an Oscar win — especially with the producers using a preferential ballot, as AMPAS does.

We’ve been here a few times before.

Six years ago, Parasite won at SAG and WGA as 1917 got DGA, PGA, and BAFTA (with Parasite going on to Best Picture glory and Oscar history). 2016’s La La Land won DGA, PGA, and BAFTA, with SAG going to Hidden Figures and eventual Oscar winner Moonlight getting WGA. A year earlier, Oscar winner Spotlight won SAG and WGA, with The Big Short getting PGA as The Revenant fought like a bear for the DGA and BAFTA prizes.

2005’s Brokeback Mountain won DGA, PGA, and BAFTA; Crash won SAG and WGA (and, ultimately, a surprise Best Picture Oscar). And, famously, the 1999 race saw Saving Private Ryan get PGA and DGA, with Shakespeare in Love wooing SAG, WGA, BAFTA … and the Oscar.

Which brings us back to Sunday’s 97th Academy Awards. If Oscar prognosticators are as disoriented as Russian goons stumbling around Brighton Beach or feel the outcome is as hard to glean as the thinking of the College of Cardinals, join the club.