Could artificial superintelligence spell the end of humanity?

Artificial intelligence is advancing at a rapid pace, and many experts expect it to evolve into artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI). At this level, AI would surpass humans in most capabilities. This form of intelligent AI may also be closer than we think. Technology like this has many experts concerned. AGI is the "most precarious technological development since the nuclear bomb," said former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang and Center for AI Safety Director Dan Hendrycks in a newly published paper.

'Logic that we can't foresee'

ASI would have the ability to "operate at digital speeds, potentially solving complex problems millions of times faster than we can," said Forbes. This could "trigger what experts call an 'intelligence explosion' — in which AI systems become exponentially smarter at a pace we can't match or control." This could pose a deadly threat to humans. Advanced AI could also "operate on logic that we can't foresee or understand." For example, if an AI system were created to fight cancer, "without proper constraints it might decide that the most efficient solution is to eliminate all biological life, thus preventing cancer forever." In this circumstance, machines could become deadly to humanity, even if they are not operating maliciously.

Even if humans use means to limit ASI, a superintelligent system "could use trickery, lies and persuasion to get people to let it out," said The New Yorker. To prevent this, AI would need to be trained to prioritize human-like morals and ethics. This raises other concerns because "aligning an AI with one set of values could knock it out of alignment with everyone else's values," and lead to bias and discrimination. Also, "how do you tell the difference between a machine that's actually moral and one that's simply convincing its trainer that it is?"

The threat to humanity is not just from AI but also from other humans. "A nation on the cusp of wielding superintelligent AI, an AI vastly smarter than humans in virtually every domain, would amount to a national security emergency for its rivals, who might turn to threatening sabotage rather than cede power," Schmidt and Hendrycks said at Time magazine.

'A fundamental difference between human intelligence and current AI'

The advancement of AI is not a problem in and of itself. "The potential benefits of superintelligent AI are as breathtaking as they are profound," said Forbes. "From curing diseases and reversing aging to solving global warming and unlocking the mysteries of quantum physics, ASI could help us overcome humanity's greatest challenges." All that is needed is preparation. "This means investing in AI safety research, developing robust ethical frameworks and fostering international cooperation to ensure that superintelligent systems benefit all of humanity, not just a select few."

However, the threat of ASI may not be as imminent as some believe. "We expect AI risks to arise not from AI acting on its own but because of what people do with it," said Wired. AI researchers have "come around to the view that simply building bigger and more powerful chatbots won't lead to AGI." Also AI is "far from achieving the kind of versatility humans demonstrate when learning diverse skills, from language to physical tasks like playing golf or driving a car," said IBM. "This versatility represents a fundamental difference between human intelligence and current AI capabilities."

"The reality is that no AI could ever harm us unless we explicitly provide it the opportunity to do so," said Slate. "Yet we seem hellbent on putting unqualified AIs in powerful decision-making positions where they could do exactly that."