Kurtenbach: Three stats that explain how Jimmy Butler saved the Warriors
We all know why the Warriors went from mediocre to title contenders in the course of a month.
His name is Jimmy Butler, and his acquisition has changed the Warriors’ season and the NBA hierarchy. I hope you didn’t have plans for April or May — you’ll be watching Warriors basketball.
Of course, it remains to be seen just how far the Warriors can go now that “Playoff Jimmy” is in the fold, but it’d be ridiculous to limit the Dubs’ potential, seeing as they are 14-1 in games No. 10 has played for Golden State.
And three stats highlight the difference he has made:
Helping Hands
When Butler came to the Warriors, he changed his number to 10 and, in a social media post, praised some of the finest attacking playmakers in soccer history.
The man called his shot. He’s playing like a true trequartista out there.
This brings us to assist percentage: With the Dubs’ motion offense, which emphasizes player and ball movement, Golden State will always be one of the top teams in this category.
In the 2021-2022 NBA season, the Warriors led the NBA in assist percentage, with 67 percent of their made baskets coming off a set-up pass.
Last year, the San Antonio Spurs led the NBA with an impressive assist percentage of 71.
Since the Warriors acquired Butler, they have registered an assist on 75 percent of their made baskets.
Seventy-five!
We can see the value of having an inside-the-arc “connector” — that trequartista — for the Dubs with Butler. Players and the ball keep moving when the ball goes inside the 3-point line. That wasn’t the case before Butler. And, sure, possessions might last a bit longer, but the results are markedly better.
For that to manifest into an assist on three-quarters of made baskets is absurd.
You’d be hard-pressed to tell me it’s not sustainable, though. This is the way the Warriors want to play offense. Golden State already led the NBA in passes per game before Butler. Now, they’re blowing out the competition. With Butler in the fold, the Dubs are averaging 12 more passes per game and are good for 14 more passes per contest (342) than any other team in the league.
It’s all led to five more potential assists per game, per the NBA’s Second Spectrum tracking, which, of course, lines up with the Warriors averaging eight points per game more with Butler — going from 18th in the NBA in points per game before the trade to sixth.
Yes, it’s all coming together.
Is this what Kerr meant by “connector?”
Staggering Influence
The Warriors have been a damn good team in recent years, save for those unfortunate minutes where Steph Curry is off the floor.
Look at this overpaid prima-donna, needing rest. Doesn’t he know his team will lose if he takes even a minute off?
Alas, Curry’s human requirement for rest could not be avoided, and the Warriors were a less-than-imposing team because of it. Golden State posted a plus-4 net rating (points per 100 possessions differential) with Curry on the floor the last two seasons and a negative rating with him off the floor. Excluding garbage-time minutes, the Warriors have been a minus-6 net rating (with Curry sitting this season.)
Since Butler arrived, they have been 23 points per 100 possessions better than before with Curry sitting on the bench.
Yes, they’re downright elite with their best player off the floor.
With Butler playing and Curry resting, the Warriors have posted a plus-18 net rating since Feb. 8.
And the inverse? Curry-led units with Butler on the bench are an absurd plus-22 per 100 possessions.
It almost makes you wonder why the Warriors are merely really good when they both are on the floor, posing a net rating of 7.
In all, the Warriors are the second-best team in the NBA in net rating (a far better indicator of success than mere wins and losses) since the Butler trade. A soft schedule has undoubtedly helped, but a number that large cannot be faked.
And, ironically, Curry is playing more since Butler’s arrival, adding a minute to each game, on average. But the rest he is getting is truly restful. (You can’t expect a winner like Curry to be able to relax when his team desperately needs him.) No. 30 is averaging six more points per game in the Butler era, cementing another All-NBA team selection in the process.
Crunch Time Turnaround
The Warriors played a ton of “clutch” games in the first five months of the season. That happens when you are a profoundly mediocre team — you play a lot of close games, or, to meet the definition, games within five points with five or fewer minutes to play.
And, of course, the Warriors were .500 in those contests, going 16-16 in an absurd 32 (the most in the NBA) such games before the Butler trade.
The need for tight-game heroics has dwindled with Butler in the fold, but Golden State has still played seven such contests going into Monday’s game with the Nuggets. That’s the third-fewest clutch games in the league during that stretch.
Oh, and they’re 5-2 in those games.
The numbers back up that winning record. The Dubs have a net rating of plus-six in clutch games with Butler (116 offensive rating, 110 defensive rating). Before, they were decidedly average, posting an offensive and defensive net rating of 112.
The Warriors have a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule for the remainder of the regular season. So, while I am confident they’ll have plenty more blowout wins down the stretch, success in close games will likely define the Dubs’ playoff seeding — which remains very much in the air, thanks to teams above them falling and the team below them, the Minnesota Timberwolves, keeping pace and boasting the weakest strength of schedule in the West in their final 13 games.
These numbers bode well for not only holding their “true” playoff spot but perhaps even moving up, too.