Keeping an eye on the Rangers’ first-round pick the Penguins own

As of right now the Pittsburgh Penguins would get the 2026 New York Rangers first-round draft pick. That could be very important.

When it comes to the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery we are not just keeping an eye on where the Pittsburgh Penguins are sitting or what their odds are. The New York Rangers should also be on your radar given given the fact the Penguins have control of their first-round pick in one of the next two seasons. That situation is also starting to get really, really interesting.

That pick has exchanged hands a couple of times this season with the Rangers originally sending it to the Vancouver Canucks as part of the J.T. Miller trade, and the Canucks then immediately sending it to the Penguins for defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O’Connor.

It is suddenly looking like an extremely valuable pick.

Or at least potentially valuable.

That pick has one big condition attached to it that will determine whether it is in the 2025 class or the 2026 class. The condition being that if the Rangers’ pick ends up in the top-13 this season, they keep it and send their 2026 pick to Pittsburgh with zero conditions attached.

If it is outside of the top-13, the Penguins will get it this year.

Given the Rangers’ recent slide, as well as the way they are playing and the way their schedule looks, that pick should have flashing neon lights all around it.

The Rangers dropped another game on Thursday night, losing 4-3 to the Toronto Maple Leafs, to extend their current losing streak to three consecutive games. They have also dropped seven of their past nine games and are now all of a sudden facing a pretty steep hill just to get in the playoffs. Not only are there four teams ahead of them by points percentage for the second wild-card spot (Montreal Canadiens, New York Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings), every single one of those teams has at least two games in hand on them, while the Rangers only play one of them the rest of the way (a road game at the Islanders). They do not have many opportunities to gain ground, and they also play seven more games against playoff teams. They have been awful against playoff teams this season.

Them missing the playoffs this season is all of a sudden a very real possibility.

Even more than just simply missing the playoffs, their current position in the league-wide standings has them in the 10th draft slot for the 2025 class. That means the lowest they could possibly pick — as of now — is the 12th spot. That would mean they keep the pick this season and send their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to Pittsburgh.

In all honesty, that should be the outcome Penguins fans are hoping for and the draft lottery watch they should be focussing on. Perhaps even more than their own position for this year’s class.

The current odds for this year, via Tankathon.

The concern here would be that the Rangers bottom out this season, keep their pick, and then figure things out for the 2025-26 season and send a lower pick to the Penguins.

The counter to that is, why should anybody be convinced the Rangers are going to figure it out this offseason?

The Rangers have the same flaws they have had for years with their roster and style of play, and have shown zero ability to meaningfully address them or fix them.

Their defensive and 5-on-5 metrics are awful, making them completely reliant on their goaltending and power play to mask the flaws and lift them up. The goaltending and power play are not elite this season, and this is the result. While it is possible starting goalie Igor Shesterkin bounces back next season and elevates them back up again, the rest of the roster is so problematic it might not matter as much as it did in recent years. Chris Kreider might be gone. Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Miller will all be a year older. The defense after Adam Fox is .... rough. They have also shown, as an organization, that they are not really capable of fixing what has held them back. Basically, my expectations for them next season — as of this publication — are relatively low.

We can also probably assume that the Penguins are not going to be very good next season, either. Even if it is not a full-scale rebuild. Even if they do not sell off everybody. Even if it is not a tank season. The odds of them being in the playoffs just seem pretty low.

That reality, combined with the possibility of having the Rangers pick, would give them two picks in a draft class that is not only expected to be better and deeper than this year’s class, but also has a very real prize at the top in Gavin McKenna.

If the Rangers would happen to turn things around this season and finish outside of the top-13, sending the Penguins a pick somewhere in the middle of the first round, I would try to shop it around before the draft and see what sort of value it had, either in terms of moving back and adding even more picks, or flipping it for a younger, team-controlled player.

If the Rangers do not turn things around this season, keep their pick, and leave the Penguins with unconditional access to their 2026 pick, I would hold onto that pick and make it pretty much untouchable. You are going to want as many picks as you can get in the 2026 class. Especially if one of them has even a small chance of being in the lottery.