Next Up - Houston In The 2025 NCAA Tournament Semifinals

This one is likely to be a real barn burner

During this week, we’ve talked about various aspects of the Duke-Houston Final Four game Saturday, and after thinking about defense, offense, rebounding and three point shooting, what it comes down to will probably be pretty simple: which team is going to be tougher?

Duke has been eyeing Houston for a while. Jon Scheyer said this week that he scheduled Houston for a so-called secret scrimmage in his first season because he thought they were the toughest team he could find. And according to Scheyer, and the last player on the roster who played in that game, Tyrese Proctor, Houston gave Duke some painful lessons.

And last year, when the teams met in the NCAA tournament, Houston was rock solid, rough and tough and before Jamal Shead got hurt, giving Duke all it wanted. And in the end, Duke only won 54-51. Houston has a reasonable argument that they would have won if Shead could have played the entire game.

Rotten luck for Houston, but doesn't matter. You can only play with the guys on the court, as Duke learned in the ACC Tournament, playing for much of it without both Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown, and winning it anyway.

As we’ve said a lot, good or bad, you can’t control your luck.

You can, however, prepare to be ready for good luck, and in this game, that means matching Houston’s toughness. And that’s not going to be easy.

As noted previously, Houston has lost four games this season: to Auburn by 5, Alabama by 5 in overtime, San Diego State by 3, also in overtime and Texas Tech by 1 in overtime.

They also won at Kansas in double overtime, 92-86, which is not an easy thing to do.

They most remind us of Tony Bennett’s Virginia and Butler under Brad Stevens, and both of those teams, while beatable, you really couldn’t leave behind. They were always within a few points and their rugged defense was designed to get into your legs, leaving you vulnerable at the ends of games.

Houston is very much like that. And as Scheyer’s legendary predecessor Mike Krzyzewski noted earlier this week, Houston’s Kelvin Sampson is still improving as a coach. You could argue that the brilliant play he drew up to beat Purdue is proof of that.

So is this: Houston moved to the Big 12, which belonged to Bill Self and Kansas. Well, not so much anymore: Houston has finished 1st in the Big 12 in its first two years. He has totally rejuvenated an historic but faded program in Houston, and this year is his best coaching job yet.

And on a side note, if he weren't playing Duke, we’d pull for him. He’s a Lumbee who is just killing it and his dad fought in the Battle of Hayes Pond, one of the great moments of North Carolina history. If you’re not familiar with this, you really should take a few minutes to read it. You’ll be glad you did.

We’d love for the NC native to do well...just not Saturday.

As also noted previously, while Houston’s big men are not that tall, they are long-armed and athletic. They’ll be a lot to deal with. And they’ve already said they plan to rough Cooper Flagg and his Duke teammates up. We don’t mean that they’ll be dirty. We just mean they’re going to force the Blue Devils, and especially Flagg, to play through heavy physical pressure. There’s a chance that the young Devils get frustrated and then into foul trouble. We hope not, but it’s an obvious strategy for the Cougars.

On the bright side, Maliq Brown, one of the most unusual defenders in the country, has been out with an injury until this past weekend, where he played essentially emergency minutes.

He should be capable of more this weekend, and if his shoulder holds up, he could be a major asset for the Blue Devils and another problem for the Cougars.

You don't want this to be the story line but some people will make it so: Houston’s older, tougher, less draftable players vs. Duke’s young NBA-bound stars. Defense vs. offense.

It probably won’t be like that, or at least not exactly. Both teams defend well. Both teams can score. And both are tough. It won’t be that simple.

It won’t be easy, but if Duke is aggressive and stays out of foul trouble, we like their chances.