Bank of England keeps rates steady, sees further loosening as jobs market weakens

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.25 per cent as expected on Thursday but said it was focused on risks from a weaker labour market and higher energy prices as conflict in the Middle East escalates.

Noting the elevated global uncertainty and persistent inflation, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joining Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor to vote for a quarter-point reduction.

A Reuters poll of economists had forecast an 7-2 vote to keep rates on hold after the central bank cut borrowing costs last month for the fourth time since August 2024.

“Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path,” BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said, although policymakers added that interest rates were not on a pre-set path.

“The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market. We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation,” he added.

The central bank said rising tensions in the Middle East as it held its meeting over the past week had not been key to June’s decision to hold rates but would be closely monitored going forward.

“Energy prices had risen owing to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The committee would remain vigilant about these developments and their potential impact on the UK economy,” the BoE said.

Nearly all 60 economists polled by Reuters before the BoE’s June meeting had predicted it would keep Bank Rate on hold at 4.25 per cent with the next cut likely in August with a further reduction in the final three months of this year.

Before Thursday’s rate decision, investors were pricing in around two more quarter-point rate cuts by the BoE to 3.75 per cent by December 2025.

The central bank kept its guidance saying it would take a “gradual and careful” approach to further rate cuts.

But Bank staff analysis struck a less pessimistic tone about the potential impacts of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the global economy, saying it might be less severe than thought in May. Trade uncertainty would still continue to have an impact on the UK economy, the central bank added.

The BoE left its forecast for inflation broadly unchanged for the second half of this year, seeing a peak rate of 3.7 per cent in September and an average of just under 3.5 per cent for the rest of the year.

The economy is now expected to grow around 0.25 per cent in the second quarter of this year, slightly stronger than in its May forecast, though it said the underlying pace was weak.

Since the middle of last year the BoE has cut interest rates by 1 percentage point, the same as the US Federal Reserve – which on Wednesday held interest rates at the 4.25 per cent-4.50 per cent range – but only half as much as the European Central Bank, which has had less persistent inflation.

Markets see just under half a percentage point more easing by the Fed this year and a further quarter-point cut by the ECB.

The Fed on Wednesday cut its economic growth forecasts for 2025, raised its inflation projection and said the uncertainty hanging over the economy had diminished but remained elevated.

Earlier on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to zero as inflation inflationary pressures decreased and it focused the risk of trade wars for inflation and the global economy.