Patriots’ Playoff Chances Soar In ESPN Model After Beating Bills

The New England Patriots may have to put away the underdog card after Sunday night’s upset win over the Buffalo Bills.

New England made a massive statement by handing Buffalo its first loss of the 2025 season and first home defeat since the 2023 postseason. Mike Vrabel transforming a 4-13 team into a playoff squad looks much more feasible following the Week 5 triumph.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Patriots a 67.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Their 9.8 projected wins trail only four AFC teams, but six have a higher playoff probability.

New England jumped five spots to No. 17 in FPI, and the easiest remaining strength of schedule could help secure a playoff berth. The Patriots’ next three opponents (New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns) are each 1-4 and rank inside the FPI’s bottom 10.

The betting market reflects this influx of optimism surrounding the Patriots, who are now listed at -188 odds to make the postseason on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Baltimore Ravens may have created an AFC wild-card opening by falling to 1-4 in an ugly Week 5 loss without Lamar Jackson and numerous other key injured players.

That’s important, as the Bills remain favored to defend their AFC East crown despite Sunday’s stunner. ESPN gives Buffalo a 70.6 percent chance to win the division, higher than any other team besides the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (80.1% to win the NFC South).

The Bills maintain an NFL-high 91.9 percent chance of making the playoffs and 20 percent probability of reaching the Super Bowl. New England has a 28.7 percent chance of winning the division and a 5.2 percent chance of representing the AFC in Super Bowl LX.

The Patriots can bolster their playoff outlook by taking care of business against the Saints in Week 6.