Holy Score: How the CFP rankings leave Utah, BYU in unexpected state of mutual dependence

The initial College Football Playoff rankings were light on major controversies Tuesday evening but brought several notable twists.

Here’s one: Undefeated BYU was slotted seventh, below a trio of one-loss SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi).

Here’s another: Two-loss Utah was ranked 13th, above a duo of one-loss ACC teams (Virginia and Louisville).

The developments seem unrelated but, for our purposes, possess a deep, tantalizing connection.

The Cougars and Utes need each other.

That’s right, folks. From this point forward, the Hatfields are rooting for the McCoys.

Burr and Hamilton are besties.

We’ll plunge into the details of this delicious twist below. But let’s pause for a minute to enjoy the idea that one of the nastiest rivalries in major college sports has been placed on hold for the rest of the month as each team works to best position itself for the CFP.

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So, how did this temporary truce come about?

Let’s start with the Utes (7-2), because their fate is more complicated against the backdrop of the CFP selection process.

Because they have two losses — and because those losses are against teams (BYU and Texas Tech) above them in both the Big 12 standings and the CFP rankings — the Utes have little chance to reach the playoff through the at-large pool.

For the time being, they are boxed out. The Big 12 simply isn’t getting three bids, not with Notre Dame’s presence in the top 10 and the barrage of one- and two-loss teams from the Big Ten and SEC available for the committee.

Yes, there’s a scenario in which the carnage is so wide and so deep that the Utes are one of the few two-loss teams standing. And if that endgame somehow materializes through the haze of late-season cannibalism in the Big Ten and SEC, we’ll address it appropriately.

For now, Utah’s best path into the CFP is through the pool of automatic qualifiers.

The Utes need to win the Big 12, which means they need to qualify for the conference championship instead of either BYU or Texas Tech. (They also need Cincinnati to get swept out of the way, but that’s a different discussion.)

Because Utah lost to both the Cougars (8-0) and Red Raiders (8-1), any scenario in which the Utes finish tied with either would be problematic. They need one of them to finish with three conference losses.

BYU doesn’t have any Big 12 losses; Texas Tech has one. But if the Cougars win the showdown Saturday in Lubbock, the Red Raiders would have two. One more, and they would disappear from Utah’s path.

That’s unlikely with UCF and West Virginia left on the schedule. But it might be more plausible than Utah sneaking into the CFP through the at-large field as a two-loss team that didn’t qualify for the Big 12 championship. (Again, that scenario will be addressed in this space, if necessary, in coming weeks.)

If BYU wins out, the collateral damage will knock Cincinnati out of Utah’s path, push Texas Tech to the brink of elimination and create an opening for the Utes to reach the title game, where they would face the Cougars in a Holy War rematch with the CFP bid on the line.

Now, let’s examine the situation from BYU’s perspective — and why Utah needs to keep winning.

If the Cougars claim the Big 12 championship, a playoff berth awaits. And compared to the competition, they have a wide road to Arlington: Beat UCF and TCU at home and either Texas Tech or Cincinnati on the road.

Even with two losses — so long as it’s the right combination with regard to the tiebreaker — BYU could climb into the Big 12 title game.

But what happens if the Cougars fall short in Lubbock this weekend, then lose to Texas Tech again in the conference championship? They would be 11-2 and fighting for an at-large berth.

That’s where Utah’s success enters the chat.

The Cougars would find themselves in a resume showdown with two-loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten. Which metric can make all the difference in that situation? Victories against ranked opponents.

If Utah keeps winning, BYU would be assured of at least one victory over a ranked opponent. In fact, the Cougars’ three-point escape in Provo in the middle of October could very well be their only victory over a ranked opponent.

It would be the boldest line on their resume, the foundation of their CFP case. And in that situation, the better Utah’s ranking, the better for BYU.

We have covered significant ground, but it’s all deep in the CFP weeds. For Utah and BYU, the situation is highly fluid. Upcoming results, both in the Big 12 and across the country, will help shape their fates.

But if you boil down all the scenarios addressed here to the most likely instances of mutual dependence, to linked arms and common enemies, this is what you find:

— BYU needs the Utes to keep winning in order to secure a victory over a ranked opponent in case the Cougars lose twice to Texas Tech and drop into the at-large pool.

— Utah needs BYU to keep winning in order to clear a path for the Utes into the Big 12 championship and a possible automatic bid.

The football gods have served up a stretch run that’s both cruel and unusual, essential and transfixing, connecting the bitterest of rivals to an endgame straight out of Holy War hell.

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