Taiwan’s Lexington Without Concord: Sovereignty, Resilience, and the Price of War

Introduction

Taiwan today serves as a critical pivot between the United States-China rivalry and lies at the heart of Indo-Pacific security. For Beijing, Taiwan is unfinished business; for Washington and its allies, it is a keystone of regional security and global supply chains. 

Tensions escalated with Beijing’s large-scale “Joint Sword 2024B” military exercise demonstrated a show of force; while Pentagon warns of a possible Chinese invasion within two years. Therefore, Taiwan’s security is deeply intertwined with broader regional stability. 

Tensions have surged with Beijing’s “Joint Sword 2024B” military exercises, deploying 153 aircraft and 43 ships in a bold show of force, while the Pentagon warns of a possible Chinese invasion by 2027, driven by PLA modernization.12 Taiwan’s security thus shapes broader regional stability, with missteps risking escalation across the Indo-Pacific.

This tense situation evokes a historical echo: the “Lexington Without Concord.” In 1775, the battles of Lexington and Concord marked the start of the American Revolution: an initial chaotic clash (Lexington) followed by colonial regrouping and resistance (Concord). Taiwan faces repeated “Lexington moments” such as PLA incursions, cyberattacks, and diplomatic isolation but lacks a clear “Concord” for unified, peaceful resolution, heightening vulnerability. While the analogy highlights Taiwan’s flashpoints, it has limits: colonial America had time to exhaust diplomacy, whereas Taiwan’s compressed timeline demands swifter resilience.

In contrast, Taiwan, experiences repeated “Lexington moments” such as military incursions, cyberattacks, and diplomatic isolation, but lacks a clear “Concord” – a structured, peaceful resolution or unified response.

At the core lies what might be called Taiwan’s sovereignty trilemma:

1. Constitutional ambiguity: Taiwan’s Republic of China (ROC) constitution still claims mainland China, complicating its status.
2. De facto autonomy: Taiwan operates as a vibrant democracy with a $400 billion semiconductor-driven economy.
3. International constraints: limited diplomatic recognition (only 12 formal allies) restricts Taiwan’s global leverage.

Unlike colonial America, which exhausted diplomatic options before war, Taiwan faces no slow burn. Highlighted by President Lai Ching-te’s May 2025 statement affirm Taiwan’s non-subordination to China, this provoked sharp rhetoric from Beijing. The tempo of coercion is faster and the margin for error gets narrower.

Despite these challenges, war is not inevitable; but avoiding it requires more than arms and deterrence. The island must find its own Concord – fostering resilience, unity and diplomacy. In this case, resilience refers to the capacity to withstand military incursions, cyberattacks, and diplomatic isolation through preparedness, unity, and adaptability; strengthened by internal cohesion and diplomatic engagement. 

The 2025 Han Kuang exercises and New Southbound Policy bolster this resilience, despite a $21.54 billion U.S. arms backlog.8910 By fostering unity and strategic patience, Taiwan can safeguard sovereignty and regional stability.

Revolutionary Lessons: Self-Determination and the Price of War

History shows that revolutions rarely start with clarity. When the Second Continental Congress convened in 1774, the American colonies were split – loyalists hoped of compromise with Britain while the patriots demanded for self-rule. The Olive Branch Petition of 1775 was aimed at a final peace offering, but King George III outrightly dismissed it. With diplomacy rebuffed and compromised shut out, the colonies stumbled into war. The violence at Lexington and Concord marked the start of a war that would claim 25,000 American lives.

The events following Lexington are as significant as the battle itself. Faced with the reality of war, the Continental Congress quickly united the colonies by forming the Continental Army in June 1775 and appointing George Washington as its leader. They began reaching out to France for diplomatic and material aid and tightened their boycotts to weaken Britain’s economic grip. 

Amid chaos, a strategy of internal unity coupled with external outreach emerged. That mix transformed scattered resistance into collective defiance. This strategy echoes Taiwan’s 2025 challenge, where internal divisions threaten resilience against Beijing’s pressures. The parallel is clear but limited: unlike the colonies’ gradual unification, Taiwan’s compressed timeline demands swifter consensus to counter gray-zone threats.

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) mirror the Loyalist–Patriot split, clashing over identity and strategy. The DPP, led by President Lai Ching-te, asserts Taiwan’s non-subordination to China, a view backed by 80% of Taiwanese opposing unification. Yet, disputes over defense budgets expose fractures that weaken Taiwan’s stance.

Lai’s “Ten Speeches on National Unity” campaign, launched to foster consensus like the Continental Army’s formation, has faltered. By mid-2025, the partially delivered initiative was criticized as prioritizing political optics over issues like housing, leaving partisan divides unbridged. This fragility risks Taiwan’s ability to withstand PLA incursions or cyberattacks on TSMC, which could spark a modern “shot heard round the world.” Unity remains Taiwan’s cornerstone for survival.

The lesson from Lexington is clear: a single spark, be it an incursion, miscalculation, or cyberattack can quickly lead to open conflict before political consensus is reached. The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) incursions and cyber operations against critical sectors like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) could ignite a modern ‘shot heard round the world’. To survive, the island must set aside partisan and factional differences and bult common institutions and jointly agree on defense and security. As shown by the American experience, unity is essential for survival against existential threats.

Taiwan’s Legal-Diplomatic Status: The Sovereignty Trilemma

At present, Taiwan’s sovereign status is shaped by a persistent trilemma. Like colonial America, it finds itself in a similar diplomatic limbo: divided at home, unrecognized abroad, and forced to navigate a fragile yet determined path forward. The echoes of the American Revolution are clear: contested legitimacy, uncertain autonomy, and dependence on support that often arrives too late. It is also unable to forge a cohesive response to repeated “Lexington moments” of coercion.

The first challenge is constitutional ambiguity. From the standpoint of international law, Taiwan fulfills the Montevideo Convention. It has a population of 23 million, a defined territory, a democratic and effective government, and the capacity for international trade and diplomacy. Its $600 billion economy is driven by TSMC’s global semiconductor dominance and more than $130 billion in U.S. trade underscore its practical sovereignty and strategic relevance.

However, this de facto independence is undermined by constitutional ambiguity. The 1947 Republic of China (ROC) Constitution still claims sovereignty over mainland China, creating legal confusion and internal division. This tension mirrors the ideological split of the 1775 Continental Congress, where American colonists debated between reconciliation with Britain and independence.

In Taiwan, the DPP sees constitutional reform as essential to asserting a distinct national identity, while the KMT clings to the existing framework as a stabilizing cultural link to China. This impasse has real-world consequences, such as budgetary disputes and weakened national resolve, as seen in the 2025 defense budget disagreement. This weakens the collective resolve needed for a “Concord” of national unity.

To transcend this divide, Taiwan must prioritize civic education and bipartisan dialogue, placing national survival above party loyalties. Expanding civic defense programs, such as training 15,000 citizens in 2024, is a step toward fostering the collective unity needed to navigate its complex legal and geopolitical challenges.

The second challenge is de facto autonomy, which itself presents a paradox: functionally sovereign yet lacking formal recognition. The island operates as an independent state: it holds regular and democratic elections, manages foreign trade, commands a credible military, and leads the world in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with TSMC alone generating nearly $400 billion in exports in 2024. Its autonomy is also backed by military preparedness, exemplified by the 2025 Han Kuang exercises involving 22,000 reservists and scenarios simulating blockades.

And yet, Taiwan remains diplomatically marginalized. Like colonial militias before French intervention in the American Revolution, Taiwan’s resilience is clear, but autonomy without robust external support remains precarious. Taiwan’s autonomy lacks the external alliances needed for a “Concord” of sustainable security. PLA military pressure and cyber intrusions highlight the risks of this diplomatic marginalization.

To convert fragile autonomy into sustainable security, Taiwan must invest in technological resilience, specifically by deploying low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites to protect communications and harden its infrastructure against disruption in times of crisis.

The third challenge is international constraint. Externally, Taiwan faces acute diplomatic constraints. With only 12 formal allies, mainly in Latin America and the Pacific, Taiwan is diplomatically isolated due to the One-China policy and Beijing’s interpretation of UN Resolution 2758, which excludes Taiwan from international bodies like the WHO. Though the U.S. remains its primary security partner, a $21.54 billion backlog in arms deliveries weakening deterrence: amid Beijing’s growing military power and incursions. This recalls the American colonies’ reliance on French support before 1778 – always delayed, conditional, and incomplete. Limited recognition hinders Taiwan’s ability to build a diplomatic “Concord,” leaving it exposed to Beijing’s pressure.

This is the essence of Taiwan’s trilemma: a democracy that is militarily vulnerable yet economically indispensable. Its defense budget grows steadily, but it remains a fraction of China’s. Conversely, Taiwan’s pivotal role in global supply chains provides an unique economic leverage that Beijing cannot fully counter. This is the essence of the trilemma: militarily vulnerable yet economically indispensable. This mirrors the colonies’ pre-1778 reliance on delayed French support. Still, Taiwan seeks to soften these constraints by expanding engagement with ASEAN forums and advocates for regional observer status. It is also promoting crisis hotlines between Beijing and Washington.

The trilemma also captures Taiwan’s fragile equilibrium. Pushing too hard on constitutional reform incurs Beijing’s fire and fury. Lean too much on autonomy without allies and coercion intensifies. Depending too heavily on limited recognition and sovereignty feels hollow. Beijing exploits every gap possible with cyberattacks, disinformation, and diplomatic pressure. 

The American Revolution suggests a way forward: unity at home, recognition abroad, and resilience on the ground. In this case, the island must draw lessons carefully to avoid turning its own Lexington moment into a point of no return. Ultimately, the trilemma is not about whether Taiwan is a state. It is about how long it can balance these contradictions without triggering a crisis it cannot control.

Gray-Zone Pressure and Taiwan’s “Lexington Without Concord”

Taiwan’s most immediate challenge is not invasion but the constant drip of gray-zone pressure. Unlike an outright invasion, which would provoke a decisive U.S.-led response, gray-zone tactics are more dangerous because they erode Taiwan’s resilience incrementally, normalize aggression, and exploit ambiguity to avoid international retaliation. This is where the “Lexington Without Concord” analogy feels sharpest: provocations pile up, tensions rise, but the pathway to resolution is deliberately blocked.

The PLA actions have become more provocative. The Joint Sword 2024B exercises put 153 aircraft and 43 ships into the waters and skies around Taiwan, blurring the line between training and blockade. By 2025, near-daily incursions were forcing Taiwan’s air force and coast guard to scramble constantly. Beijing’s intention is clear and effectively normalizes aggressive actions, gradually eroding Taiwan’s operational readiness without triggering war. This persistent pressure seeks to desensitize Taiwan and its allies to aggressive posturing, undermining operational readiness without firing a shot.

Hybrid threats have increased military harassment. In mid-2025, Taiwan’s government agencies, banks, and TSMC were all targeted with Cobalt Strike malware. These cyberattacks aim to disrupt Taiwan’s economic leverage and expose digital vulnerabilities, potentially crippling global supply chains. The U.S. Cyber Command assisted with countering these attacks, highlighting the link between Taiwan’s digital security and global supply chains. However, reliance on external support also exposes Taiwan’s vulnerability, as even small breaches could cause serious economic and strategic harm.

Disinformation campaigns have surged ahead of Taiwan’s 2025 local elections. The Taiwan FactCheck Center noted a surge of false claims that the Central Election Commission rigged results favoring the ruling DPP. Spread through bots and altered videos, these efforts undermine trust in democracy, deepen partisan divides, and fuel social polarization. These parallels show how propaganda intensified Loyalist-Patriot tensions during colonial America.

Despite pressure, regional support for Taiwan has subtly grown. Japan has stepped up, holding joint missile defense and maritime exercises and committing $10 billion in semiconductor investment. Meanwhile, ASEAN is negotiating a South China Sea Code of Conduct, with Taiwan participating indirectly in talks. These moves show Taiwan is less isolated than Beijing wants.

Historically, unlike the American Revolution’s clear turning point at Lexington and Concord, Taiwan faces a “Lexington Without Concord.” Beijing’s gray-zone tactics avoid decisive conflict, keeping Taiwan in constant low-level siege in terms of military, digital, and psychological aiming at wearing it down without uniting it through crisis.

Alternate Trigger Scenarios: When Defense Looks Like Offense

Besides an invasion, the next greatest danger for Taiwan would be misperception. In such an adversarial environment, a mere defensive maneuver can look like provocation.

In the same vein as US arms sales, the 2025 Han Kuang exercises that aimed at public reassurance and deterrence strengthening, would trigger a similar reaction from Beijing as they are taken as “splitting the motherland.” What Taipei sees as essential for survival, Beijing frames and misreads as evidence of a creeping conflict. In this mirror hall, shields look like swords.

Domestic politics compound this dilemma. Taiwan’s democracy fuels activism that often collides with Beijing’s sensitivities. Grassroots movements, seen locally as democratic expression, are recast by Beijing as foreign-backed separatism, raising the risk of a coercive response to peaceful civic action. Senator Marco Rubio’s mid-2025 visit to Taipei, meant to show U.S. support, was seen by Beijing as provocation, triggering increased military drills.

History reminds us how easily tense moments can spiral out of control. The “accidental shots” at Lexington in April 1775 ignited into a full-scale war that changed the course of history. Taiwan’s present risk lies in a similar dynamic where small sparks, whether a military drill or a student protest, can trigger a larger conflict that neither Taipei nor Beijing sought.

To mitigate this, Taiwan must pre-announce 2026 Han Kuang drills via MOFA schedules and engage in ASEAN forums to clarify defensive intent. These measures reduce ambiguity, ensuring Taiwan’s “Lexington” does not escalate without a “Concord” of resilience and dialogue.

Reform Instead of Revolution: Policy Recommendations

History reminds us that diplomacy and collaboration can be more effective than conflict. After the battles of Lexington and Concord, The Founding Fathers faced an impossible situation: divided colonies, a powerful empire and no guarantee of outside support. They responded pragmatically with a dual approach: the Continental Army was formed; and they reach out diplomatically, especially with France. 

This strategy of building internal strength and seeking external support was key for their survival and independence. Taiwan in this instance should learn from this by enhancing defenses while avoiding provocation and deepening democracy for resilience, with each policy addressing its sovereignty trilemma: constitutional ambiguity, de facto autonomy, and international constraints.

Diplomacy is paramount, easing international constraints. Establishing U.S.-China-Taiwan crisis hotlines reduces miscalculation risks. Without these channels, crises may escalate unintentionally.  At the same time, Taiwan should continue pursuing membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to strengthen economic ties and show its commitment to a fair, rules-based global economy. Regional engagement is vital. Taiwan’s participation in ASEAN forums can foster good partnerships and frameworks for disaster relief, health security, and technology sharing. These help to promote goodwill, trust and reduce conflicts.

Military preparedness must go hand in hand with diplomacy, strengthening autonomy. Taiwan cannot abandon its deterrence, but it can shape how it is perceived. National Han Kuang exercises are crucial but could be better managed to reduce misperceptions. Pre-announcing the 2026 drills would emphasize their defensive nature and ease Beijing’s concerns. Investing in low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite defenses is critical to safeguard communication and deter cyber and space threats, especially against key infrastructure like TSMC.

Societal resilience counters constitutional ambiguity. Programs like Kuma Academy’s civil defense training, which has engaged over 15,000 citizens, extend defense beyond the military. The Taiwan FactCheck Center counters Beijing’s disinformation, helping maintain public support for the status quo, preferred by 62 percent of the population. This societal preference supports measured resilience instead of hasty confrontation.

Finally, Taiwan needs unity at home – cross-party consensus is critical to resolve constitutional ambiguity. The American Revolution only found direction when the colonies put aside internal disputes to face an existential threat. Taiwan’s two main parties must do the same. They can disagree on constitutional reform or budget priorities, but they must agree on survival and autonomy. Without these shared minimum consensus, Taiwan’s democracy risks becoming its Achilles’ heel.

In short, Taiwan’s future depends not on sudden upheaval but on quiet and deliberate reform. By enhancing diplomacy, refining deterrence, strengthening social resilience, and building cross-party unity, Taiwan can turn its “Lexington Without Concord” into a moment of endurance and not escalation.

Conclusion: Resilience as the New Revolution

Revolutions are often remembered for their victories, but they begin in loss. The American Revolution, remembered for its victory, began with great sacrifice of losing over 25,000 lives, families torn apart, and communities scarred. Taiwan faces similar uncertainties, but with modern threats: frequent incursions, cyberattacks on key industries, and an arms backlog of more than $20 billion that complicates defense. These test the island’s ability to deter aggression, reassure its people, and maintain the trust of its allies. As such, any misstep is a risk. 

Taiwan’s “Lexington Without Concord” reflects a sovereignty trilemma: constitutional ambiguity, de facto autonomy, and international constraints. War is not inevitable if Taiwan centers resilience on this framework. To address ambiguity, Civic Defense Education fosters bipartisan unity, countering DPP–KMT divides. For autonomy, 2025 Han Kuang exercises and LEO satellites bolster defenses and secure communications. To ease constraints, crisis hotlines and ASEAN engagement build multilateral trust, reducing miscalculation risks. 

Taiwan’s challenge is a revolution rooted in resilience, not rebellion. Its trilemma demands internal cohesion and external agility to absorb Beijing’s pressures without breaking. While the Revolutionary analogy illuminates Taiwan’s path, its modern stakes require a new “Concord” of patience and strength.

Taiwan’s survival depends on unity at home and diplomacy abroad, balancing patience with strength. With these, more than any muskets or missiles, is how Taiwan will continue to shape its own history. 

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