Douglas Schoen: The districts that could bust Newsom’s redistricting

Whether one considers mid-decade redistricting an overtly partisan trick or smart political move, what really matters is one overarching question: will it work the way these states intended? 

To be sure, there are reasons to expect that at least on the state level, redistricting will work as designed, even if some of the district designs are “absurd” as one reporter described.

After all, states did not undertake the most intensive redistricting process since the 1800’s without a high degree of confidence that their respective goals would be achieved. 

That being said, is it possible that in California at least, there is a risk that this move backfires on Democrats and Gov. Gavin Newsom in particular? 

In order to answer that, how the new districts were drawn needs to be looked at. 

California may be as deep-blue a state as they come, but there are significant pockets of Republican votes that make attempting to dilute them risky. 

Indeed, consider the 48th district, currently represented by longtime Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. 

In 2024, Issa carried the district by nearly 20-points, beating Democrat Stephen Houlahan 59% to 41%. 

According to the proposed new districts, in the new 48th district, Democrats would outnumber Republicans by 4-points – 37% to 33% – with the remainder being Independents. 

And while that should be a Democratic advantage, it may not be as secure as first appears.

Issa’s 19-point victory in 2024 happened even though Republicans had a 12-point registration advantage. In other words, a considerable share of Independents voted for the Republican. 

Similar circumstances exist throughout the Golden State’s newly gerrymandered districts.

The 1st district, which Republican Doug LaMalfa won by 31-points in 2024 is now designed to give Democrats a 10-point registration advantage. 

Yet, LaMalfa’s margin of victory was more than 1.5 times greater than Republican’s previous registration advantage of plus-18.

Finally, the 22nd district, currently represented by Republican David Valadao after winning by 7-points, now has Democrats with an 11-point registration lead. 

Tying all three of the above districts together is that, despite Newsom’s attempts to dilute GOP votes by lumping them in with sizable numbers of Democrats and Independents, the districts are all led by Republicans who have won Independents before.

To that end, between the 22nd and 48th districts, it is possible, albeit not extremely likely, that Newsom’s partisan efforts may not work out as hoped.

In the 48th, Issa has more than twice the amount of cash on hand compared to the next closest Democrat, Brandon Riker, and his long history in the district has endeared him to independents.  

And, according to Inside Elections’ rating, the 22nd district still has a “Tilt R” rating, implying that Valadao may hold on. 

Worth noting about Inside Elections is that they categorized the 22nd like that after Prop. 50 was passed.

Of course, this is not simply a California problem. As Politico reported, all or many of the states that underwent mid-decade redistricting may see similar issues. 

Much of this is due to the growing number of Independents and voters who split their ticket. As Independents become an even larger share of the electorate, its increasingly harder to find reliably partisan voters. 

Further, voter coalitions have changed more rapidly in recent years than in the past. In 2024, President Trump was able to bring in sizable – if not historic for a Republican – numbers of Black and Hispanic voters. 

According to the aforementioned Politico article, the White House relied on that data to draw Texas’ new maps, but in off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Black and Hispanic voters did not come out for the Republicans, rather they went back to largely voting Democratic.

Put another way, there is no way for Newsom or any other governor to be confident that their new districts will fall in line with their intentions. 

Moreover, there is the issue of candidates. Redrawing districts often pits two incumbents against each other, each with their own engrained support. 

On the other hand, by redrawing the map so close to the election, candidates may be forced to compete in districts where they have less name recognition, hurting their chances against an incumbent such as Issa.

Ultimately however, the chances that California will be able to squeeze at least four and possibly all five targeted Republicans out of office remain high. Newsom and the state legislature put considerable effort and research into redrawing these district lines.

Nevertheless, American politics have become so unpredictable and rapidly shifting that the possibility remains that all of the fracas over redistricting does not yield the results anyone intended.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.