IMF warns not to take economic strength for granted, and flags 4 things propping up global growth

• The global economy has been resilient despite challenges like tariffs and geopolitics.
• The IMF's managing director warns not to take the resilience for granted, though.
• There are four things driving growth, she says, including AI spending and private-sector strength.

The International Monetary Fund projects another year of solid global economic growth — but it's also warning not to take the continued upward trajectory for granted.

The IMF projects the global economy will grow 3.3% in 2026, mirroring that 3.3% growth seen in 2025, with 2027 expected to see similar gains.

"The world economy is resilient but you should not take this resilience for granted," Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of IMF said at an event on Monday.

According to Georgieva, there are four things that are driving up growth, and at least one is being overlooked by observers.

Here's what the IMF sees pushing the world economy higher.

1. Private sector steps up as governments back down

Governments around the world have let the private sector take the reins. With "governments put out from running the economy where they don't belong," private sector strength supports growth, Georgieva said.

The economist said in remarks at Davos that governments taking a back seat allows the private sector to be "more adaptable, more agile, and we see the benefits of it".

2. Trade is a less significant factor for growth

The global economy's recent growth has been less tied to trade, mitigating the impacts many had feared from Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy.

The fact that effective tariff rates are below liberation day levels has meant the impact has been significantly less than initially feared.

Despite trade tensions spurred by tariffs, "we continue to trade for now," Georgieva says, adding, "don't take this for granted."

3. Trillions spent on AI fueling growth

Global AI spending reached 1.76 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $3.34 trillion in 2026, according to Gartner.

The "massive investment in AI" has served to boost optimism in the global economy, Georgieva said.

4. Governments working and central bank independence

The IMF economist says one factor that is often forgotten when assessing global economic growth is "the role of good policies and strong institutions."

Georgieva flagged the role of independent central banks, specifically, in the resilient global economy. She said tht these things are often given little attention but, and as a result, that could "erode" that source of strength.

Central bank independence is a key concern in the US as President Trump's administration pressures Fed chair Jerome Powell. The latest tensions have arisen from a criminal investigation by the DOJ into Powell's testimony about the Fed building renovation.

Trump has been vocal in his criticism of the Fed chair, rattling markets with his threats to fire Powell over the last year.