They said it: Chances of two Republicans clinching California governor race runoff?

“For frame of reference, an 18% chance is about equivalent to the chances of San Francisco being fogged in during your morning rush hour. Not exactly an unheard of event.”

— Paul Mitchell, political data expert who drew the Proposition 50 congressional maps passed by voters last November, on a recently created simulator that allows users to plug in different variables including 2026 polling data to calculate the odds of who will advance from California’s top-two June primary to the general election. Two Republicans? 18%.