Here’s who is in the running to become Iran’s next Supreme Leader

When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in one of the first missile strikes launched by the US and Israel in their war on Iran, he was 86 years old and in poor health.

So it’s likely top officials in the country already had plans in place in case of his demise – even if they probably didn’t predict how it would happen.

But as chaos continues to explode across the region, it’s unclear whether those plans remain intact or if – like Khamenei’s palace in Tehran – they have been reduced to rubble.

Even if the different ruling factions had already managed to agree on a single candidate, ‘it’s very possible that the catastrophic situation Iran now finds itself in might force a rethink’, according to Dr Christian Emery, an associate professor in international politics at University College London.

He told Metro: ‘Several of the key power brokers who were steering the process towards one preferred candidate, and very possibly even Khamenei’s chosen successor, may now well be dead.’

Nevertheless, there’s now a power vacuum at the top of Iranian politics that the regime will be desperate to fill.

And the man they choose could end up dictating whether this war comes to a swift conclusion, or escalates further into unthinkable bloodshed. Here’s how.

How is Iran’s new Supreme Leader chosen?

In the 47 years since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, there have only been two Supreme Leaders of Iran.

The first was Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled for nine-and-a-half years until 1989. Ali Khamenei was the second.

(As a sidenote, the title of Ayatollah does not automatically come with the role. It simply means a high-ranking Shiite leader – Khomeini already was one when he became Supreme Leader, while Khamenei was given the title afterwards to help shore up his legitimacy.)

The Iranian Constitution sets out the process for selecting the new one.

It’s all down to the Assembly of Experts, a body elected by the Iranian public every eight years which is made up of 88 clerics.

Within the Assembly, there’s a smaller committee that picks out a list of acceptable candidates to whittle down the choice for the rest of the members.

‘It’s almost certain that this was done long before the current war,’ Professor Emery said.

Now Khamenei is dead, the constitution dictates the Assembly must elect a successor by majority vote ‘as soon as possible’ – something that would usually be made simple by all the groundwork.

Professor Emery explained: ‘Khamenei’s own elevation was so carefully choreographed that it took the Assembly of Experts only 24 hours to elect him.’

However, he added that it is ‘very unclear how the Assembly of Experts can formally convene’ when such a gathering would provide Israel and the US with a golden opportunity to wipe out more of Iran’s leadership.

Who are the top contenders to become Supreme Leader of Iran?

These are the most likely candidates for the new Supreme Leader of Iran according to Professor Emery – and what impact he believes they would have.

Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i

‘Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i is currently one of the three leaders standing in as the country’s interim governing council.

‘An extreme hardliner, he is notorious for being the key judicial figure responsible for the mass executions and brutal crackdown on protesters during the January anti-government protests.

‘As such, his appointment as Supreme Leader would potentially incite more public rage.’

Hassan Khomeini

‘The grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic and its first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

‘Hassan Khomeini may be as close to a stabilising option as the regime can get.

‘He has the Khomeini family name and links to both reformist and conservative factions and is reportedly also respected by the powerful Revolutionary Guards.

‘He is seen as somewhat of a moderate, although that remains a very relative term amongst all the potential candidates given their loyalty to such a brutal and corrupt system.’

Mojtaba Khamenei

‘Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s second-eldest son.

‘He is reportedly extremely influential inside Iran but working against him is both his lack of government experience and the political and clerical establishment’s fear that returning to hereditary rule would undermine the Iranian Revolution’s founding principle of no more Shahs.’

Ayatollah Alireza Arafi

‘A member of the Guardian Council since 2019 and of the Assembly of Experts since 2022.

‘He has the clerical standing and his influence was seen when he was appointed to the country’s interim governing council.

‘He would likely be seen as a safe pair of hands who would largely continue Khamenei’s agenda and not challenge the power of the Revolutionary Guard.’

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