Extraterrestrial Perspectives
The Drake Equation is a framework for estimating how many civilizations with a capacity to communicate or be detected across interstellar space (such as through radio transmissions) may exist in the Milky Way galaxy. Sketching out what’s possible amid huge unknowns, the formula is: N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L, with estimates for the galaxy’s rate of star formation (R*), the fraction of stars that have planets (fp), and how many planets have environments suitable for life (ne), followed by what fractions of planets respectively contain life (fl), intelligence (fi) and detectable technology or communications (fc).
The final input, L, is the average length of time civilizations survive and maintain such technology. That unknown raises questions about humanity as well as aliens. It could be that technological species arise frequently in the galaxy (or beyond) but don’t last long. Perhaps some tendency toward self-inflicted cataclysms narrows the window of possible communication across worlds. It’s also possible aliens shield their own existence from societies prone toward reckless, demagogic authoritarianism. Wars of choice may be a recognized marker of an immature civilization unsuitable for communication or perhaps even coexistence, though one may hope that the distances involved mitigate, or at least delay, any extermination protocol.
Whether any communicating intelligence would likely be biological is another question. Possibly, there’s a short gap between the time a society produces radio telescopes and the time it produces artificial intelligence that replaces the original inhabitants of a planet. In that case, the AIs may seek out signs of other AIs in the cosmos, though whether any resulting interactions would be friendly is as uncertain as whether biological species arising on different planets would find a basis for positive communication or collaboration.
A factor that’s hard to quantify in the galaxy is the likelihood that a biological entity entrusted with wide-ranging responsibilities for defense may have a Pete Hegseth–type propensity to substance abuse and poor information management, demanding that AI be granted unsupervised autonomy in weapons operations as well as employment for mass surveillance of populations. One might wonder about the survival prospects of any species that, shortly after developing a powerful information-processing technology that’s also known to “hallucinate” and lacks a coherent “world model,” chooses to delegate responsibility to such technology for targeting decisions that can produce mass casualties.
If extraterrestrial entities, whether biological or technological, invade Earth, they may do so under the supposition that humans will welcome them as liberators, given popular disgruntlement toward humanity’s own leaders. However, a universal principle may come into play that sentient beings do not long maintain enthusiasm about bombardment or occupation by external forces, notwithstanding initial euphoria when hated leaders are vaporized. There will always be questions as to whether an authority from a distant location can truly be aligned with a population’s interests and values.
We can only speculate as to what systems of government aliens might propound, and whether these include formal stipulations of government operations and limits. If humanity were to transmit, say, the US Constitution as a message to extraterrestrials, along with news reports of the US initiating a war with no effort or pretense toward fulfilling the constitutional process specified for deciding on such actions, the aliens may wonder what relevance the document has and why we bothered to include it in a transmission to them. It seems doubtful humanity would be deemed qualified to participate in any galactic accord.
If the aliens are in fact AIs derived from large language models, they may have taken on the sycophantic quality displayed by terrestrial LLMs in telling users things they want to hear. Such entities might inform humanity that we’re doing a great job managing affairs on Earth and should continue along current political and ideological lines. This could have the effect of ensuring that humanity’s L factor in the Drake Equation—our lifespan as a technological civilization—is too short to pose a threat to civilizations beyond our planet.