NASA Issues Major Update on 2032 Path of 'City Killer' Asteroid

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is big and dangerous enough that it has been dubbed a "city killer." There were concerns that the asteroid could hit the moon or even Earth in 2032.

However, in a major update, NASA announced that the asteroid is likely to miss our lunar neighbor - and us. "Using data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope observations collected on Feb. 18 and 26, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California have refined near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit and are ruling out a chance of lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032," NASA wrote in a statement.

Previously, NASA estimated that the asteroid had a 4.3% chance of hitting the moon. It was even feared that there was a slim chance the asteroid could hit Earth, but NASA has ruled that out as well.

NASA Now Believes That Asteroid 2024 YR4 Will Miss the Moon's Surface by 13,200 Miles

How close will the asteroid get to the moon? "With the new data, 2024 YR4 is expected to pass by the lunar surface at a distance of 13,200 miles (21,200 km)," NASA wrote on March 5, 2026.

"This update reflects improved precision in our understanding of where the asteroid is expected to be in 2032 rather than a shift in its orbital path," added NASA.

"Previous analyses, made before the incorporation of these new observations, suggested 2024 YR4 had a 4.3% chance of lunar impact on this date," wrote the space agency.

The terrifying fact, though, is that NASA doesn't even know about most asteroids. "There were 25,000 asteroids near Earth that measured more than 140 metres in diameter. Nasa only knows the location of about 40 per cent of them," The UK Times reported.

The Asteroid YR4 Is Only Visible With the Webb Telescope

The Webb telescope made tracking the asteroid possible.

"The observation team, led by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, used Webb to capture the two additional observations of 2024 YR4 in an application of the telescope’s unique capabilities," NASA wrote. "Since spring of 2025, the asteroid has been unobservable from both Earth and space-based observatories except for this use of Webb to make among the faintest ever observations of an asteroid."

Asteroid 2024 YR4 "was discovered in late 2024 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile," added the space agency.

"In early 2025, the information available about the asteroid’s trajectory indicated the asteroid had a small, but notable chance of impacting Earth. Over time with more observations collected by observatories around the world, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, or through the next century," added the statement.

"It’s typical to have initial observations and risk models updated once additional observational data is gathered and models are able to be refined," NASA wrote.

NASA Is Developing Methods to Protect the Planet From Asteroids

According to the UK Times, Nancy Chabot, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins University, said the asteroid threat "keeps me up at night."

One method NASA is working on would crash "a spacecraft called Dart (Double Asteroid Redirection Test)" into objects to possibly "alter a space rock’s path," the UK Times reported. However, none is ready to go.

"We don’t have [another] Dart just lying around. If something like YR4 had been headed towards the Earth, we would not have any way to go and deflect it actively right now," she told the publication.

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