The IEA estimates that at least 10 million bpd of supply has already been shut in, making it the largest disruption the oil market has ever faced. Refineries across the Gulf are reducing runs because products cannot be exported. Diesel, jet fuel, and LPG markets are tightening sharply. Governments have responded with a record 400-million-barrel release from strategic reserves, but those barrels will arrive slowly while the disruption is happening now. At the same time, Tehran itself is sending mixed signals. Iranian diplomats say the country does…
