Oscar Predictions: The Numbers Say ‘One Battle After Another,’ but Can ‘Sinners’ Beat the Odds?

I feel very lucky.

I hate boring awards seasons. I hate seasons where I’m rooting againstsomething. I want surprise, and I (obviously) want to see the people and films I like succeed.

Watching this year turn into a heated race between my two favorite films of 2025 is a special thing.

Yes, this race has gone on too long. Yes, some of the discourse has become insufferable. Why are we talking about cats and opera so much this late in the game?

But I can’t remember the last time I felt this unconfident about five above-the-line categories, including Best Picture. As someone whose job revolves around making predictions, that’s a bit stressful — and very exciting.

Given the strength of their work, whichever performers walk away with the hotly contested Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress Oscars will be deserving winners. Whether “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners” wins Best Picture, I know I’ll be enjoying both for the rest of my life. 

Reporting on this season in my first year on the job has been one of the great joys of my life. I have cherished diving deep into the awards race each week through interviews, this newsletter and TheWrap’s data-driven Awards Tracker.

So let’s do this one more time: What does more than 25 years of Academy Awards history tell us about this weekend, and what are my predictions for this year’s above-the-line Oscar winners? Read on to find out.

Until next time …

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Best Screenplay (Adapted)

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”

Could Win: “Hamnet”

If you’re trying to figure out where “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners” might gain an edge, the screenplay categories aren’t going to be much help. This century, 19 out of 26 Best Picture winners also took home an Oscar for Best Screenplay. 10 of those were original screenplays, and nine were adapted — so as close to 50-50 as you can get.

As the winner of the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Award and the WGA Award, there’s really no reason to bet against Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle,” inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland.” The Awards Tracker gives the film an 80% chance of winning.

The Tracker gives the next-best odds to “Bugonia,” statistically helped by the fact that it doesn’t have to overcome a Golden Globes loss since it wasn’t nominated in the first place. Sometimes, you get better odds if you aren’t included at all. If you really wanted to bet against “One Battle,” though, “Hamnet” seems like the likeliest of possible upsets — but do that at your own risk.

Best Screenplay (Original)

Will Win: “Sinners”

Could Win: “Sentimental Value”

“Sinners” is more or less in the same position as “One Battle After Another” in its own screenwriting category. Ryan Coogler’s original screenplay took home prizes at the WGA Awards, BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards. Its only loss came at the Golden Globes, where original and adapted screenplays are thrown into the same category.

The Awards Tracker gives “Sinners” even better odds than “One Battle,” placing it at the top of the Best Original Screenplay lineup at 87.5%. Every other film sits at a low 1% chance of winning, though I suspect that Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt’s “Sentimental Value” came in second.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”

Could Win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Here’s where things get a bit nutty. With three wide-open acting races, any prediction you make will feel like a risk in Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. For Best Supporting Actor, the Awards Tracker gives Sean Penn the best odds with a 92.3% chance after he won the Actor Award and BAFTA back-to-back.

Penn is a safe bet, while Stellan Skarsgård, who won the Golden Globe, is a reasonable choice for people who aren’t buying into the tracker’s precedent-driven statistics. Delroy Lindo, on the other hand, didn’t get nominated at the Actor Awards, BAFTAs, Golden Globes or Critics Choice, so going with him is a bit more of a risk.

Still, I can’t escape the feeling that the season has moved in Lindo’s direction. We have yet to see Lindo go head-to-head with anyone this season, but the Academy went against the norm by nominating him in the first place. In a season that’s been very spread out, a beloved figure with a long career could walk away with the Oscar, even if he’s had fewer stops on the awards trail.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Could Win: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Best Supporting Actress has consolidated around three performers: Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku. All of them remain strong possibilities for Sunday’s winner.

I’m going to agree with the Awards Tracker, which gives Madigan a 50%chance after her wins at Critics Choice and the Actor Awards. I’ve flip-flopped between her, Mosaku (who sits around 29%) and Taylor (who seemed to be the frontrunner coming into the season), but keep coming back to Madigan post-SAG coronation. 

The last person to win an acting award as their movie’s only nominee was Julianne Moore for “Still Alice” in 2015, and the last person in this category was Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” in 2009. Plus, Madigan plays a spooky witch in a capital-H Horror Movie, which isn’t a typical Oscar role.

But Madigan has been a fun winner on this awards trail, and she gives a hell of a performance in “Weapons.” It would be a joy to see her take the stage this Sunday, and I believe that Academy voters feel the same way.

Best Actor

Will Win: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

Could Win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room: Timothée Chalamet is out. No, not because he made a comment about opera and ballet that somehow sparked a solid week of discourse. The BAFTAs and Actor Awards simply showed that many voters weren’t buying what “Marty Supreme”was selling, stopping the momentum Chalamet built early in the season. I have no doubt he’ll be back on the Oscar hunt in a few years.

That leaves Michael B. Jordan, who won at the Actor Awards, and Wagner Moura, who won at the Golden Globes. Jordan leads the Awards Tracker with only 11.11% odds, which speaks to this complete anomaly of a season.
Moura’s odds were cratered by missing the nomination from SAG-AFTRA, which has historically been a must for Oscar winners.

While the Actor Awards didn’t show up for any international performances this year, the Academy is an increasingly international voting group, with a strong South American contingent in particular. Moura’s performance is my personal favorite of the bunch, and I get the feeling that we have a repeat of the Globes coming this Sunday.

Best Actress

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Could Win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

Finally, an easy one. 

Jessie Buckley’s powerful, emotional performance in “Hamnet” has been on a tear this season, picking up every major award. This is probably the safest bet in the lineup. TheWrap’s Awards Tracker gives Buckley 99% odds, while each other nominee sits at 1%.

If you really want to go against the grain, Rose Byrne picked up a lot of critics awards early in the season for her equally impressive work in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” I just don’t see anything stopping Buckley at this point.

Best Director

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Could Win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

In Best Director, you have to ask yourself a simple question: How much do you believe in a “Sinners” steamroll?

It’s usually a good idea to pair your Best Director winner with your Best Picture winner. 70 of the 97 Best Director winners at the Academy Awards also won Best Picture. The two awards have also been paired 65% of the time this century. So if you’re predicting “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another” in Best Picture, it’s probably a safe bet to put them in Best Director as well.

Yet a more powerful correlation is Best Director at the Oscars and the DGA Awards, where Paul Thomas Anderson won. The DGAs have predicted the Oscar winner all but eight times across 77 years, and about 81% of the time this century. Throw on PTA’s wins at the BAFTAs, Globes and Critics Choice, and he has a 90% chance of winning according to the Awards Tracker, regardless of which way Best Picture goes.

But a Ryan Coogler win remains possible. The Oscars have swerved from the other awards ceremonies before, even when a director had a strong season. Sam Mendes won all the same awards as PTA for “1917” (though, he tied Bong Joon Ho at Critics Choice), and he still lost at the Academy Awards. If the Academy does go with “Sinners,” it’s not hard to imagine them going all the way.

Best Picture

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”

Could Win: “Sinners”

And here it is.

Best Picture this year comes down to a battle of metrics vs. vibes. In the lead-up to the Oscars, “One Battle After Another” won at all of the big players: the BAFTAs, DGAs, PGAs, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards. “Sinners,” meanwhile, only bested “One Battle” at the Actor Awards, which predicts Best Picture about half the time.

But statistics can’t highlight the titanic vibe shift that came when “Sinners” (and Michael B. Jordan) won at the Actor Awards in the middle of Oscar voting. It was a big night that reminded people how beloved this movie is. That might have affected how people filled out their ballots.

We at TheWrap took this moment very seriously — our office was literally split down the middle in our Best Picture predictions. I’m still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will win, but I feel about as confident as I feel when calling heads or tails.

TheWrap’s Awards Tracker gives “One Battle” a 99% chance of success, while history tells us “Sinners” has about an 8% chance. But “Brokeback Mountain,” which had a comparable season to “One Battle,” would’ve gotten the same odds — and a SAG-AFTRA loss to “Crash” signaled how that season would end exactly 20 years ago.

We’ll find out if “Sinners” can do the same this Sunday.

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