My NCAA Tournament pick: Arizona will win it all in a Big 12-heavy Final Four

It has been a while since my NCAA Tournament bracket had the right champion. That was in 2018, when Villanova was a runaway train. Somehow, I whiffed on Loyola to the Final Four that year.

In 2021, I had the correct final two, Gonzaga and Baylor, only in the wrong order. Same thing in 2024, when I picked Purdue over UConn. My title pick last year, Houston, finished as runner-up to Florida, which I also projected to reach the Final Four. Too much close but no cigar, if you ask me.

This time, I’m leaning hard into certain trends that, perhaps, should have guided me before now.

First, seven of the last eight champs, and 14 of the last 18, have been No. 1 seeds. A strong indicator right there.

Second, seven straight Most Outstanding Players — all on title winners — have been veterans with three or more years of experience, and six of them have been linchpin guards on No. 1 seeds. We’re talking about stars — Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr., Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji, Baylor’s Jared Butler and so on — with invaluable skill sets and presences.

Beyond that, over the last seven Big Dances, the all-tournament teams have been littered with guards — 23 of them, compared with only 12 forwards and centers. It’s a guard's event, and it certainly tends not to be a coronation of superstar freshman bigs who are bound for the top of the NBA draft as one-and-dones.

No. 1 seeds Duke, Michigan and Florida don’t check the right boxes. It says here that Duke freshman Cameron Boozer will follow Duke one-and-done, No. 1 overall forwards Zion Williamson (2019), Paolo Banchero (2022) and Cooper Flagg (2025) in falling short on top-seeded teams. And that Michigan and Florida will prove too interior-oriented to go all the way.

But then there’s Arizona, the only team in the field that checks every box. If you don’t know fourth-year point guard Jaden Bradley yet, you’re going to get to know him over the Wildcats’ next six games. He was the Big 12’s player of the year and its tournament MVP. The last guy to pull that off, Agbaji, went on to win it all, and there’s no reason Bradley — the heartbeat of a 32-2 monster — can’t complete the deal, too.

Bradley is surrounded by extreme talent, with guard Brayden Burries a projected NBA lottery pick, forward Koa Peat a jaw-dropping athlete and 7-2 Motiejus Krivas coming into his own. When the Wildcats need someone to will them over the finish line, that’s what Bradley is for.

Arizona — admittedly, often a tournament disappointment through the years — is the pick to get it all right and cut down the nets for the first time since 1997.

You can thank me later.

EAST

First-round winners: Duke, Ohio State, St. John’s, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan State, UCF, UConn.

Second round: Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State, UConn.

Sweet 16: Duke, Michigan State.

Elite Eight: Michigan State.

SOUTH

First-round winners: Florida (over Lehigh), Iowa, Vanderbilt, Nebraska, VCU, Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Houston.

Second round: Florida, Vanderbilt, Illinois, Houston.

Sweet 16: Florida, Houston.

Elite Eight: Houston.

WEST

First-round winners: Arizona, Utah State, Wisconsin, Arkansas, BYU (over NC State), Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Purdue.

Second round: Arizona, Wisconsin, BYU, Purdue.

Sweet 16: Arizona, Purdue.

Elite Eight: Arizona.

MIDWEST

First-round winners: Michigan (over UMBC), Saint Louis, Akron, Alabama, Miami (Ohio, over SMU and Tennessee), Virginia, Santa Clara, Iowa State.

Second round: Michigan, Alabama, Virginia, Iowa State.

Sweet 16: Michigan, Iowa State.

Elite Eight: Iowa State.

FINAL FOUR

Houston over Michigan State, Arizona over Iowa State.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Arizona over Houston.