It’s Time to Think Big Again

12.04.2026 03:45

Scoop

Ten Projects That Would Transform New Zealand’s Energy, Water, and Industrial Future. The Original Think Big Built Infrastructure That Still Powers the Economy 40 Years Later. Here Is What the Next Version Should Look Like.

In 1979, with oil prices doubling, weekend petrol sales banned, and carless days in force, New Zealand’s government looked at the natural gas beneath Taranaki and decided to build. The projects it built were controversial, expensive, and politically ruinous for the Prime Minister who championed them. They were also, as a recent reassessment of the programme’s full economic legacy makes clear, among the most productive investments the country has ever made. The Clyde Dam still generates electricity. Methanex still exports methanol. New Zealand Steel still makes steel. The Tiwai Point smelter is contracted until 2044. Six of seven major projects survived, and their cumulative economic return appears to exceed the total programme cost by a factor of five to ten.

New Zealand in April 2026 faces a set of pressures that Robert Muldoon would have recognised immediately. An energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Petrol above $3.40 a litre. Diesel prices that have driven a spike in rural fuel theft. An electricity system that nearly ran out of capacity during the winter of 2024, with wholesale prices exceeding $800 per megawatt hour. Gas fields in terminal decline. A $210 billion infrastructure deficit that grows wider every year. And an economy that has spent billions on restructuring programmes that produced no lasting physical assets.

The parallels demand a response. Not a repetition of Think Big. The world has changed. Natural gas is declining, not abundant. The climate crisis rules out new fossil fuel processing plants. The economics of energy have shifted decisively toward renewables. But the principle that drove Think Big, that a government willing to invest in physical infrastructure using the resources the country actually has can create assets that generate value for decades, is more relevant in 2026 than it has been at any point since 1979.

Here are ten projects that would constitute a modern Think Big programme. Each uses resources New Zealand already possesses. Each addresses a vulnerability that the events of 2025 and 2026 have exposed. Each would create lasting physical infrastructure rather than organisational charts, consultant reports, or legislation. And each would generate employment, export earnings, and economic activity in regions that need it most.

#	Project	Sector	Estimated cost	What it delivers
1	Taranaki Offshore Wind Farm	Energy	$2–$4B	500+ MW of generation, replaces declining gas jobs
2	Marsden Point Biorefinery	Energy / Fuel	$1–$2B	Domestic SAF and renewable diesel from NZ biomass
3	Canterbury Solar and Battery Hub	Energy	$800M–$1.2B	500+ MW solar with battery storage
4	Cook Strait HVDC Upgrade (accelerated)	Grid	$2–$3B	Unlocks South Island renewables for North Island demand
5	Seasonal Energy Storage Facility	Grid / Storage	$3–$6B	Solves dry year risk without gas or coal
6	National Water Infrastructure Programme	Water	$5–$10B	Fix the 20 worst water systems, actual pipes not restructuring
7	South Island Hyperscale Data Centre Zone	Industrial	$1–$2B (public)	Grid capacity to attract $10B+ in private data centre investment
8	Green Hydrogen Pilot at Tiwai Point	Industrial / Export	$500M–$1B	Heavy transport fuel, export product, Southland’s post-smelter future
9	Strategic Fuel Reserve (90 days diesel)	Fuel Security	$300–$500M	Triple onshore diesel reserves from weeks to months
10	Inter-Island Freight Rail and Ferry	Transport	$2–$3B	Replace ageing ferries, electrify rail to terminals
	Total estimated public investment		$18–$33B	Over 10–15 years

Ten proposed projects for a modern Think Big programme. Cost estimates based on comparable international projects and New Zealand construction benchmarks. Public investment figures only; several projects would attract substantial private co-investment.

1. Taranaki Offshore Wind Farm

Taranaki built its economy on energy. For six decades, the oil and gas fields beneath the region and off its coast powered the country’s industrial development, from the Kapuni gas field discovered in 1959 to the giant Maui field that came online in 1978. That era is ending. Gas reserves fell 27 percent in a single year to 948 petajoules. Production declined 20.9 percent in 2024. The Methanex methanol plant, once the backbone of the regional economy, is scaling back to a single production unit. Port Taranaki’s methanol volumes are falling.

But Taranaki has something else. Wind. The Taranaki Bight has some of the most consistent offshore wind conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, with relatively shallow water and existing port infrastructure capable of supporting construction and maintenance vessels. A 500+ megawatt offshore wind farm would generate enough electricity to power roughly 350,000 homes, create hundreds of construction jobs over a five to seven year build period, and provide permanent operational employment in a region that is losing its gas industry jobs.

The government has received expressions of interest from companies wanting to develop offshore wind in New Zealand waters. What is missing is a regulatory framework for offshore renewable energy and a clear signal that the government will support the grid connections needed to bring the power to market. The original Think Big used Taranaki’s gas. The next version should use Taranaki’s wind.

2. Marsden Point Biorefinery

Marsden Point, where the original Think Big refinery expansion operated for 36 years. The proposed biorefinery would use existing jetties, tanks, and the pipeline to Auckland. Photo: Phillip Capper / CC BY 2.0

The proposed biorefinery at Marsden Point is the project that most closely mirrors the original Think Big model. Channel Infrastructure, the company that operates the former refinery site, has announced a conditional agreement with Seadra Energy, Qantas, and Air New Zealand to develop a facility producing sustainable aviation fuel, hydrotreated vegetable oil, and renewable diesel from domestic biomass feedstock.

The project would repurpose existing infrastructure, the deep water jetties, the storage tank farm, and critically the 170 kilometre pipeline to Auckland, that was built with Think Big money in the 1980s. The feedstock would come from New Zealand’s substantial forestry sector, meaning the supply chain would be entirely domestic. Unlike the old fossil fuel refinery, which depended on crude oil shipped from the Middle East, the biorefinery would be immune to the kind of supply chain disruption that the 2026 Hormuz crisis has inflicted on the country.

Government co-investment, whether through direct equity, concessional loans, or long term offtake agreements for sustainable aviation fuel, could accelerate the final investment decision and reduce risk for private partners. The Northland workforce that lost its industrial employment when the refinery closed in 2022 is still in the region. Many of the skills are directly transferable.

3. Canterbury Solar and Battery Hub

Grid scale solar is now the cheapest form of new electricity generation in New Zealand, with installed costs under $2 million per megawatt. The Canterbury Plains offer flat, low value pastoral land with good solar irradiance and proximity to the Christchurch grid connection. Genesis Energy and FRV Australia have already built a 63 megawatt solar farm near Christchurch. Christchurch Airport has broken ground on a 162 megawatt installation.

A government backed programme to co-invest in 500+ megawatts of solar paired with battery storage in Canterbury would more than double the country’s installed solar capacity, provide daytime generation that complements the South Island’s hydro and wind resources, and create construction and operational employment in the region. Battery storage co-located with solar addresses the intermittency problem, storing excess daytime generation for release during evening peak demand.

At current construction costs, 500 megawatts of solar would cost approximately $1 billion. For comparison, the government spent $1.2 billion establishing water entities that were subsequently disestablished.

4. Cook Strait HVDC Upgrade (Accelerated)

Transmission lines near Lake Benmore. The Cook Strait HVDC link is approaching capacity, constraining how much South Island renewable generation can reach North Island consumers. Photo: Pseudopanax / Public Domain

The Cook Strait HVDC link, the high voltage direct current connection between the South Island’s hydro generation and the North Island’s demand centres, is approaching its capacity limits. Upgrades planned by Transpower are not expected until around 2031. Every year of delay is a year in which South Island renewable generation cannot reach North Island consumers, data centre developers are told to wait, and the grid remains constrained.

Accelerating this upgrade is the single highest leverage infrastructure investment the government could make. Every dollar spent on transmission capacity unlocks multiple dollars of private investment in generation and industrial activity. The original Think Big built the Clyde Dam to generate power. The modern equivalent is building the grid to deliver it.

5. Seasonal Energy Storage Facility

New Zealand’s electricity system has a structural vulnerability that no amount of new wind and solar can solve on its own. In a dry winter, when hydro lake levels fall and solar output is minimal, the country depends on gas fired peaking stations to keep the lights on. But gas production is declining and there is no alternative seasonal storage at scale.

The Lake Onslow pumped hydro concept, which would have stored water during wet periods and released it through turbines during dry winters, was investigated at a cost of $36 million before being shelved. The problem it was designed to solve remains. Whether the solution is pumped hydro at a different site, large scale battery storage, green hydrogen produced from surplus renewable electricity and stored for winter use, or a combination, the country needs a facility that can bridge a three to four month period of constrained generation.

This is the hardest and most expensive project on the list. It is also the most important. Without seasonal storage, New Zealand will continue to burn coal at Huntly during dry winters, undermining its renewable credentials and its climate commitments.

6. National Water Infrastructure Programme

The water infrastructure deficit is estimated at $120 billion to $185 billion over 30 years. People died in Havelock North because the water system failed. Pipes are leaking. Treatment plants are operating on expired consents. Over a third of wastewater plants will require re-consenting within the next decade. The Three Waters reform spent $1.2 billion on organisational restructuring and built no pipes. The replacement framework, Local Water Done Well, has not yet demonstrated it will deliver faster.

A modern Think Big approach would bypass the organisational debate entirely. Identify the 20 worst council water systems in the country, based on public health risk, consent compliance, and leakage rates. Fund their upgrade through central government co-investment, with councils contributing a share based on their capacity. Build the treatment plants, lay the pipes, and fix the reservoirs. Start with the ones where people are getting sick.

This is not glamorous. Water pipes do not make headlines the way offshore wind farms do. But safe drinking water and functioning wastewater treatment are the most fundamental infrastructure a country can provide. New Zealand is failing at both.

7. South Island Hyperscale Data Centre Zone

Amazon Web Services has committed USD $7.5 billion to New Zealand. Microsoft has launched a hyperscale cloud region powered entirely by renewable energy. The global data centre market is growing exponentially, driven by artificial intelligence workloads. New Zealand’s appeal is its renewable electricity grid, its temperate climate (reducing cooling costs), and its political stability.

But data centres need power. The grid into Auckland is already constrained. South Island locations near hydro dams in Christchurch, Invercargill, and elsewhere offer proximity to renewable generation and cooler temperatures, but require investment in transmission capacity.

A government programme to build dedicated grid capacity for a South Island data centre zone, co-funded by the data centre operators who would be its customers, could attract tens of billions in private investment. The public investment in grid infrastructure would be a fraction of the private capital it unlocks. Boston Consulting Group’s 2026 report argued that AI model training is not latency sensitive, meaning computing capacity can be located wherever power is cheapest and cleanest. New Zealand, with the right grid investment, is that place.

8. Green Hydrogen Pilot at Tiwai Point

The Tiwai Point aluminium smelter is contracted until 2044. But Southland needs to be thinking about what comes next. The region’s competitive advantage, abundant renewable hydroelectric power from Manapouri, will still exist whether or not the smelter does.

A green hydrogen pilot, using surplus Manapouri hydro to split water into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis, would test the viability of hydrogen as a fuel for heavy transport (trucks, ships, potentially trains) and as an export product. Meridian Energy has previously explored hydrogen production in Southland. The economics are challenging at current scale, but costs are falling globally and the technology is proven.

The pilot would not need to be enormous. A facility producing enough hydrogen to fuel a fleet of heavy trucks on the Invercargill to Christchurch corridor would demonstrate the concept, create skilled employment, and position Southland as a hub for the hydrogen economy that multiple countries are racing to develop.

9. Strategic Fuel Reserve (90 Days Diesel)

Fuel storage tanks at Port Taranaki. New Zealand’s onshore diesel reserves currently cover just 22 to 28 days of demand. Photo: russellstreet / CC BY-SA 2.0

The 2026 fuel crisis proved that New Zealand’s minimum stockholding obligations are too thin. Onshore diesel stocks fluctuate around 22 to 28 days of demand. The government’s own fuel security study identified diesel as the fuel most likely to run short during a sustained 90 day supply disruption. The increased stockholding obligation to 28 days does not take effect until July 2028.

A strategic fuel reserve of 90 days’ diesel supply, held in government owned storage at Marsden Point and Lyttelton, would transform the country’s resilience to supply chain disruption. At current daily diesel consumption of approximately 10.7 million litres, 90 days’ supply is roughly 963 million litres. Channel Infrastructure has confirmed the ability to roughly double storage capacity at Marsden Point by recommissioning disused tanks. The capital cost of storage infrastructure and initial fuel purchase would be in the range of $300 million to $500 million, a fraction of what the country spent on Three Waters establishment.

Diesel powers the trucks that move freight, the machines that build buildings, the generators that back up the electricity grid, and the tractors that feed the country. A 90 day reserve is not a luxury. It is an insurance policy against the kind of disruption that is no longer hypothetical.

10. Inter-Island Freight Rail and Ferry

The Cook Strait ferry link is the single most critical freight connection in New Zealand. Approximately 25 percent of all goods moving between the North and South Islands travel by ferry. The existing fleet is ageing. The iReX replacement programme was cancelled by the current government after hundreds of millions in sunk costs, leaving the country dependent on vessels approaching the end of their operational lives.

A modern Think Big approach would treat the inter-island link as the strategic infrastructure it is, not as a commercial operation to be optimised for short term returns. New ferries, designed for rail freight as well as road vehicles, combined with electrified rail connections to the ferry terminals on both sides of the strait, would create a low carbon freight corridor linking the two islands. The rail electrification would reduce dependence on imported diesel for freight movement, a vulnerability the 2026 fuel crisis has made painfully clear.

The Common Thread

Every project on this list shares four characteristics. It uses resources New Zealand already has. It addresses a vulnerability that recent events have exposed. It creates lasting physical infrastructure rather than organisational structures or reports. And it generates employment in regions that need it.

The original Think Big used Taranaki’s natural gas. The next version uses wind, sun, water, biomass, and geography. The original Think Big built infrastructure that still powers the economy 40 years later. There is no reason to believe these projects would be any different.

The total estimated public investment across all ten projects is in the range of $18 billion to $33 billion, spread over 10 to 15 years. That is a large number. It is also less than the infrastructure deficit grows by every single year. It is less than the cumulative economic return from the original Think Big programme. And it is a fraction of the $210 billion infrastructure deficit that the country has accumulated by choosing, decade after decade, to spend money on things that do not last.

Te Waihanga has calculated that New Zealand needs to invest roughly $31 billion per year in infrastructure to close the deficit. The country currently spends about half that. These ten projects would not close the gap on their own. But they would demonstrate that the government is willing to build again. And they would create assets that, like the Clyde Dam, the Glenbrook steel mill, and the Tiwai Point smelter, will still be generating value long after the political arguments about them have been forgotten.

The turbines still turn at Clyde. The aluminium still flows at Tiwai Point. The steel still rolls at Glenbrook. The question is not whether New Zealand can build at this scale again. It is whether it is willing to.