From the general election to the rise of Jeremy Corbyn – it’s been a bad year for political predictions

He’ll come fourth. That’s what I said when Jeremy Corbyn scraped on to the ballot paper with one nomination and a minute or two to spare. He may yet, but I’m not quite as confident now as I was then. What is the point of political predictions, then? Especially mine. But the polls also got the general election wrong and no one saw the Scottish nationalist surge coming.