Kurultai elections: What is expected from Kazakhstan abroad

Tengrinews.kz — On August 23, Kazakhstan will hold its first elections for deputies of the new unicameral Parliament—the Kurultai. International experts shared their expectations with Tengrinews.kz regarding the new parliamentary model, the criteria for evaluating its effectiveness, and the significance of these political transformations for Kazakhstan's relations with foreign partners.
Providing their assessments were Darren G. Spinck, an expert at the Henry Jackson Society; Darren G. Spinck, Raza Syed, representing the Eurasia Policy Council; Raza Syed and Michael-Andreas Butz, former official spokesperson for the Berlin Senate. Michael-Andreas Butz.
What will determine trust in the new Kurultai
Darren G. Spinck links the creation of the Kurultai both to the Kazakh tradition of collective deliberation on vital issues and to the current stage of political modernization. However, he believes the defining factor for the new legislative body will be its ability to address societal demands, rather than its name or structure.
Darren G. Spinck. Photo provided by the interviewee

"Kazakhstan needs institutions that allow citizens to play a more significant role in shaping state policy. Ultimately, trust in the Kurultai will depend on whether public requests are reflected in the legislative body's work," Spinck noted.

Raza Syed shares a similar perspective. In his view, the establishment of the Kurultai could represent a major milestone in political modernization, but the real significance of the new body will emerge through its practical operations.
Raza Syed. Photo provided by the interviewee

"The Kurultai is a major step in Kazakhstan's political modernization. Its true value will be determined by how effectively deputies can reflect citizens' interests, participate in lawmaking, and help increase government accountability," Syed remarked.

According to the expert, the new parliamentary model should be evaluated primarily by the quality of the deputies' work, the representation of diverse interests, and the legislative body's responsiveness to citizen demands.
Why the August 23 elections are a critical stage
Spinck views the upcoming elections as one of the first practical indicators of how the constitutional reforms will function. He pays particular attention to political competition and party participation.
In his estimation, the conduct of the elections will be significant not only for domestic policy but also for how Kazakhstan is perceived by foreign partners and investors.

"It is vital for Western investors to be confident that political changes will occur in an orderly fashion, that institutions will remain stable, and that state policy will not shift abruptly. Competitive elections will strengthen the legitimacy of the new parliament and Kazakhstan's reputation as a predictable destination for foreign direct investment," the expert believes.

Raza Syed describes the August 23 elections as historically significant, as they mark the point where constitutional changes begin to be realized through the work of the new legislative body.

"In a broader sense, these elections will demonstrate how Kazakhstan translates constitutional amendments into the realm of real, functioning political institutions," the expert emphasized.

Michael-Andreas Butz also links the significance of the upcoming vote to the citizens' ability to influence the composition of the legislative body.
Michael-Andreas Butz. Photo provided by the interviewee

"Now, all segments of the population are involved in the democratic process. They can determine the composition of Parliament through their vote, and Parliament enacts laws independently. This is the most significant level of influence the population can have. That is why the August 23 elections are so important," Butz says.

Unicameral parliament: What the new model could change
Spinck believes a single chamber can accelerate lawmaking, streamline certain procedures, and make accountability for decisions clearer. At the same time, he argues that the actual powers of the legislative body are of fundamental importance.

"Unicameral systems can operate successfully if the legislative body possesses clear mandates and sufficient political weight to actively engage in parliamentary oversight and the formation of state policy.
The success of the Kurultai should be judged by the quality of parliamentary debate, the diversity of representation, the efficiency of legislative work, and the ability to respond to the priorities and requests of citizens," Syed believes.

Butz considers the transition to a unicameral Parliament a viable model, emphasizing that the bicameral system common in many Western countries is not a universal standard.
In his view, what matters more is how effectively state institutions function and how fully citizens are able to participate in the political process.

"Public participation in elections is far more important. The new legislation ensures free and, above all, equal elections, as well as the participation of political parties representing a wide range of views," Butz emphasized.

He specifically highlighted the transition to a proportional representation system, which he believes could expand the opportunities for parties when forming the legislature.
What the reforms could mean for investors
Spink notes that foreign businesses assess political transformations primarily through institutional stability, regulatory consistency, and the predictability of government policy.
If the new parliamentary model makes the legislative process clearer and more consistent, he believes this could significantly enhance the country's investment attractiveness.
Butz also links the prospects of Kazakhstan's cooperation with European countries to political and economic stability, paying particular attention to relations with Germany.

"The West is very interested in economic cooperation beyond just raw materials and the oil industry. Germany, in particular, is very interested in this, and we certainly want to and will expand such cooperation," the expert noted.

Butz considers the development of manufacturing projects directly within Kazakhstan to be one of the most promising areas.

"German industry does not want to buy raw materials exclusively. It is necessary to create opportunities for the production of finished goods directly in Kazakhstan. There is still a large gap here, and this area has significant potential for further development," the expert believes.

In his view, it is also important for business how quickly and clearly decisions on investment projects are made at both the central and regional levels.
Why changes in Kazakhstan matter for the region
Spink and Syed also drew attention to the regional significance of the transformations taking place in Kazakhstan.
According to Spink, the country's economic weight and its role in trade, transport routes, and supply chains mean that the consequences of these changes could extend far beyond domestic politics.

"Successful reforms will further strengthen Kazakhstan's position as one of the key pillars of regional stability and international connectivity," Spink concluded.

Syed also links the interest in the reforms to Kazakhstan's position in Central Asia. At the same time, he believes the international assessment of the transformations will depend primarily on concrete results — the effectiveness of new institutions, political participation, and the transparency of the electoral process.

"Kazakhstan's political stability matters for all of Central Asia due to the country's economic weight, its strategic position, and its role in developing regional connectivity," Syed emphasized.

According to experts, it will be possible to fully assess the consequences of the transition to the new parliamentary model once the Kurultai begins its work. They cite the effectiveness of the legislative body, political representation, public trust, and the predictability of state institutions as the main criteria for success.