Nigeria’s economic growth falls to lowest since 1999

– Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.11% in real terms

– Oil production stood at 2.16 million barrels per day; 0.3% lower than in the 3rd quarter of last year

– The economy grew by 2.8% last year, the slowest rate since 1999

In 2015 the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) conducted the Quarterly Establishment Surveys for the first three quarters of 2015 (Q1-Q3, 2015) and the fourth quarter survey for 2015.

The nation’s GDP growth rate

According to data provided by the bureau on Wednesday, in the Fourth Quarter of 2015, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.11% (year-on-year) in real terms.

This was lower by 0.73% points than growth recorded in the preceding quarter and also lower by 3.83% points than growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2014. Quarter on quarter, real GDP increased by 3.10%

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During the quarter, aggregate GDP stood at N25,930,469.41 million (in nominal terms) at basic prices. Compared to the Fourth Quarter 2014 value of N24,205,863.34 million, nominal GDP was 7.12% higher.

Nominal GDP growth was also higher relative to growth recorded in Q3 of 2015 by 1.11% points.

The oil sector

During the period under review, oil production stood at 2.16 million barrels per day (mbpd) 0.3% lower than production in Q3 of 2015.

Oil production was also lower relative to the corresponding quarter in 2014 by 1.0% when output was recorded at 2.19mbpd.

The non-oil sector

Growth in the non-oil sector was largely driven by the activities of Trade, Crop Production, and Information and Communication, Other Services and Real Estate. The non-oil sector grew by 3.14% in real terms in Q4 of 2015.

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This was 0.08% points higher than Q3 of 2015, yet 3.30% points lower than the corresponding quarter in 2014 (Figure 3). In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 91.94% to the nation’s GDP, higher than shares recorded.

Bloomberg analysis

Growth in Africa’s biggest economy and oil exporter slowed to 2.8 percent last year, the weakest level since 1999 and down from 6.2 percent recorded in 2014.

“The figures confirm widespread fears of a slowdown, possibly even a recession. The lack of investment and access to imported inputs has hamstrung the corporate sector, and is increasingly being felt by the man on the street,” Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix Partners LLP in London, said.

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