How NATO should respond to Russian aggression in the Baltics

REUTERS/Grigory Dukor

Russia has a population smaller than Nigeria, and a GDP smaller than Italy, but an outsized military presence that looms over NATO's Baltic members, and the alliance at large.

Ongoing military campaigns in Syria, Ukraine and Crimea, as well as past infractions in Moldova and Georgia underscore just how willing Russia is to use conventional forces, as well as softer means of undermining neighboring states.

Russia has been increasingly flaunting their military might and daring with a series of provocative moves towards US and NATO ships and planes, and a RAND Corp study, as well as testimonies from several prominent US generals, has concluded that Russian forces could overrun NATO defenses and take over Baltic capitals like Riga and Tallinn in as little as 36 hours.

A new report from the Atlantic Council contends that with the proper organization, and preparation, NATO could configure their forces to deter, and if necessary, defeat Russia in the Baltics.

In the slides below, see how NATO can refocus to provide adequate support for democracies to weather even a surprise attack from a newly rearmed and aggressive Russia.

The Russian threat

Russia's borders are only a few hundred miles from the capitals of the Baltic States, and Russia sees these states as an important buffer zone between them and major European powers.

They actively use NATO as an adversary in their military exercises, and have developed substantial capabilities to move large forces against their NATO neighbors.

Russia has proven successful in their abilities to destabilize neighboring countries through threatening postures and hybrid warfare. The conflict in the Donbas region of Ukraine is a clear example of this.

Source: Atlantic Council

Intelligence

A fundamental need of NATO forces is to understand what Russia is up to in the first place. NATO must leverage every possible source of intelligence. This includes both human and open source intelligence.

A useful model the type of intelligence apparatus NATO needs to monitor Russia can be seen in South Korea, where the 501st Military Intelligence Brigade, based in South Korea "conducts theater level multi-discipline intelligence for Joint and Combined Warfighters.

But as NATO needs to worry about Russia's hybrid warfare, as well as conventional forces, they must include an understanding of  "development of social and behavioral sciences."

This includes having human intelligence assets and analysts with an understanding of the language, as well as a "deep cultural awareness” who can be "placed in the field in order to be best postured for intelligence operations and conflicts.”

Source: Atlantic Council

Direct defenses

RAND Corp's troubling assessment of Russia's advantage over NATO forces in the Baltics is based on a conventional assumption that heavier, larger forces will defeat smaller, more lightly armed forces.

To reinforce the Baltics, Baltic nations must first adhere to the 2014 Wales Summit when they were tasked with increasing defense spending to 2% of their GDP. However, even 2% of theses countries entire GDP is not enough to make much of a difference.

For their part, Baltic nations must convert to armored, mechanized, or mixed brigades and focus on anti-tank and armor capabilities, as Russia has developed impressive new tanks. The rest of their reinforcement will have to come from their NATO allies.

Source: Atlantic Council