The Twins' catching depth behind Kurt Suzuki is really thin

As I wrote for today’s newspaper, a defensible position on why the Twins shouldn’t trade starting pitcher Ervin Santana goes something like this: on a team armed with prospects but short on established pitchers in the rotation, Santana is a commodity with the Twins — so much so that if they dealt him, they might be tempted to sign someone like him next year. So why not keep the known commodity at a known cost ($27 million over the next two seasons)?

A similar logic can be attributed to catcher Kurt Suzuki, albeit in a different type of conversation. Where the conversations merge is here: behind Suzuki, the Twins have perilous few catching options in the organization. The difference with Suzuki is that he isn’t under contract beyond 2016 — unless he reaches a plate appearance threshold, which we’ll examine a little bit further down in the post.

First, the organizational depth (or lack thereof):

*Juan Centeno: He’s done a credible job at the plate since coming up in early May, hitting .265 while starting roughly one of every three games behind the plate. But he’s allowed a whopping 18 wild pitches in 248 innings (Suzuki has allowed 22 in 575 innings, by comparison), and he’s thrown out just two of 11 would-be base stealers. He’s a 26-year-old journeyman with a career minor league OPS of .666. So there’s a chance Centeno this season is about as good as he’s going to get: a fringe backup catcher.

*John Ryan Murphy: Centeno is getting the chance because Murphy, acquired in the offseason for Aaron Hicks and tabbed the heir apparent to Suzuki, has had a dismal season at two different levels. Murphy was just 3-for-40 with the Twins before being dispatched to AAA Rochester. He sputtered there initially, then started to hit … but lately he’s been right back into the funk. It’s added up to a .209 average at Rochester with a lowly .550 OPS. Yankees GM Brian Cashman said at the time of the trade that the Twins were getting an everyday catcher. Maybe that will prove to be true still, but this season has been the polar opposite of encouraging. The only saving grace for the Twins in the deal so far is that Hicks has been almost as bad (.187 average with the Yankees).

*Mitch Garver: This is the one name to be intrigued by in the whole mix. Garver, who was the highest-rated catcher on Aaron Gleeman’s top 40 Twins prospects list going into the season (at No. 31, at that), has had a very solid season at Class AA Chattanooga. He’s hit for pop and drawn enough walks to post an .800 OPS and could very well earn a call-up in September (or sooner). Still, he’s 25 and has has alternated between mediocre years and good years in his four seasons in the Twins’ organization.

*Stuart Turner: He was No. 33 in Gleeman’s rankings to start the year, but Turner has hit just .222 at Class AA this season. He has a good defensive reputation, but Garver would seem to have moved ahead of Turner in the pecking order — even though neither is close to a sure thing to be productive in the majors.

The rest: The Twins have trotted out a number of catchers at Class A Fort Myers, none with great results – though 23-year-old A.J. Murray posted promising numbers at low-A Cedar Rapids before his promotion. Still, anyone at that level doesn’t figure to help anytime soon. Making matters worse: John Hicks, whom the Twins grabbed off waivers over the winter before the Tigers nabbed him in late April when the Twins exposed him, has an .869 OPS at Class AAA Toledo. And Chris Herrmann, who did virtually nothing in Minnesota at the plate, has found a nice home in Arizona. And that’s before we even talk about Wilson Ramos.

Add it up and it’s pretty clear there is no sure-fire succession plan after Suzuki. Maybe Murphy rebounds. Maybe Garver builds on his strong season. Maybe Centeno is better than his track record indicates. But those are a lot of marginal ifs.

When a team is 40-64 and in the midst of a lost season, having little depth behind Suzuki is not a reason to hold onto him. But it perhaps is a reason to not just accept any deal.

Complicating matters is that Suzuki is a free agent after this season unless he reaches 485 plate appearances to trigger a $6 million option for 2017. He’s at 251 now, meaning it’s highly unlikely he gets to that threshold (last year, for instance, when he played a ton down the stretch he had 170 plate appearances from Aug. 1 to the end of the season. That would put him at 426, well short of 485).

Knowing that — and barring any kind of extension with the Twins — it might make sense to move him anyway. Regardless of whether the Twins trade Suzuki or fail to re-sign him: their catching prospects are thin going forward, at least in the near-term.

You combine some questionable roster decisions and one unfortunate deviation from the script (Joe Mauer shifting to first base because of concussion problems) and suddenly a strength has turned into a weakness.