Islamic State weakened, but still determined

A military assault has forced the Jihadists to move many of their fighters and much of their equipment to Libya, according to a counter-terrorism expert.

Johannesburg - The world's two most powerful militaries, the US and Russia, are arguing over who should take credit for the elimination of leading Islamic State (IS) figure, spokesperson and strategist Mohamed Al Adnani, in Syria earlier this week.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it killed Adnani and 40 other fighters with an airstrike carried out by an SU-34 bomber in the town of Maaratat-Umm Khaush in Aleppo province on Wednesday.

CNN subsequently reported the same day that a US defence official from the Pentagon expressed doubt over the Russian claim, countering that Moscow's assertion would be laughable if the immense damage Russia's airstrikes had caused to civilians in Syria wasn't a serious concern.

However, as Washington and Moscow's power struggle over geopolitical supremacy on the Mideast chessboard continues, the Islamic State is facing an internal dilemma of its own - along the lines of “where to next” as the group retreats from former conquered territory in the face of stiff resistance.

IS has taken a heavy battering in Iraq and Syria where a military assault, incorporating an extensive blanket-bombing campaign by coalition forces has forced the Jihadists to move many of their fighters and much of their equipment to Libya, according to Martin Ewi, a counter-terrorism expert from the Institute of Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria. However, in Libya too, the Islamic extremists have been forced to withdraw from their former stronghold of Sirte, in northern Libya, as Libyan government forces, backed by US military strikes, have routed them.

Accompanying the loss of territory and manpower, IS has also lost control of oil reserves and other forms of revenue, exacerbating damage to its international prestige among global Jihadis. Nevertheless, despite the losses and setbacks the militant group remains determined and desperate with speculation mounting as to its future plans. “IS has several choices as to its next moves. One move could be to consolidate its hold over territory still under its control and where it still wields power,” Ewi told the African News Agency (ANA).

“I don't see the Libyan army being able to sustain the recent military gains it has made against IS in Sirte,” said Ewi.

“The battle for Libya is still far from over. There is a strong possibility that the Jihadists will disperse and regroup in other parts of Libya.

“It will depend on the security measures put in place by Tripoli as the North African country is an important stepping-stone into the rest of Africa. But security remains difficult given the political and security chaos in the country,” said Ewi.

At the moment nobody knows where IS militants in Libya are situated as they have gone underground following their expulsion from Sirte. It is also possible that some of their fighters may return to Syria where they still control large swathes of territory.

But even there they are coming under increasing attack. “Another option for IS is to join forces with other Jihadist groups with similar ideologies and modus operandi, such as Boko Haram - which has pledged allegiance to the IS, to see what they could bring to the table,” said Ewi.

However, any attempt to move further into Africa could face difficulties, Ewi believes. “The Arab appearance and attire of many of the IS fighters, differ significantly from most Africans, making them fairly easy to identify and easier to pursue,” the political analyst explained.

“IS has been fighting long and hard to establish a strong foothold in Somalia but has faced numerous setbacks due to Somali government and African Union (AU) military successes against it,” explained Ewi.

Finally, IS could ramp up its proselytising efforts to encourage more young Africans to join its ranks. “Therefore to extend the global reach of the Caliphate IS wants to establish, the Islamists also need to win hearts and minds by increasing their prestige and upping their credibility,” said Ewi.

“And this is why a military campaign alone can't defeat them and why other factors including social, political and cultural issues need to be addressed to nip the issue in the bud of the IS being an attractive alternative for the dispossessed and disenfranchised,” Ewi told ANA.

African News Agency