Adverse developments in Russia’s economy make positive outlooks for Armenia impossible - expert
Adverse things in Russia's economy amid sanctions and low oil prices impact partner countries, including Armenia, he said.
In his words, Russia's share in Armenia's imports in monetary value has shrunk.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, the country's trade with Russia amounted to $989.6 million (25.4% of Armenia's foreign trade) in Jan-Oct 2015 showing a 14.8% decline.
Armenia's exports to Russia totaled about $179.14 million in Jan-Oct 2015 against $253.7 million in the same period a year before, and imports shrank 10.7% to $810.5 million.
Khachatryan said Armenia's imports contracted by $850 million in the 2015 ten moths alone. It means that the country's population consumed then by $3 million less every day than at the same period a year earlier.
«It was luck that the central bank had not used up its reserves,» the economist said. «Otherwise, the central bank's reserves would have reduced to $800 million... , and in the event of recovery of imports, the central bank would have found itself in a complicated situation.»
In his words, Armenia’s imports have shrunk because of contraction of money transfers.
The economist said that despite decline in import, Armenia has almost managed to retain its Jan-Oct 2014 export volumes with a slight 2.2-percent decline, but failed to repeat the 2014 annual result.
Gauging things in Armenia’s economy, Khachatryan said that the country's GDP growth showed a steady slowdown in last years.
«If we compare economic growth of the last three years, we'll see a gradual year-on-year slowdown,» he said. «It means some separate segments of the economy can't give a significant impetus to growth.»
Khachatryan said the producers' price index stopped rising a few months ago.
«Products are not being sold and producers have to down prices,» he said.
Economic activity growth that stood at 3.5% in Jan-Oct 2015 was mostly insured by growth in agriculture.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, the country's foreign trade shrank 20.4% in Jan-Oct 2015, compared with the same period a year before, to $3 900.9 million.
The country's exports totaled $1 223.4 million in Jan-Oct 2015 showing a 2.2% decline.
In the government budget for 2015, GDP growth is projected at 4.1%. ($1 – AMD 482.93). --0---