Polling update: Trump surges as Carson tanks, Democratic race static

REPUBLICANS

This graph of the polling composite tells it all:

I had a theory that went like this:

“Donald Trump’s support is shallow (only 1/3rd of Republicans), but strong and steady, and he’s maxed out. Ben Carson will crater and Ted Cruz will pick up his support. Marco Rubio will consolidate the establishment support but trail in the low teens.”

So far, my Rubio theory appears to be bearing fruit, but Trump? Hot damn, he’s suddenly the biggest beneficiary of Ben Carson’s collapse! To wit: One month ago, Trump was at 28.4 percent, Carson was at  21 percent, and Cruz was at 8.8 percent. Today, Trump is up to 35.1 percent (+6.7), Carson is at 13.9 percent (-7.1), and Cruz is up to 11.4 percent (+2.6). It’s quite obvious who the big winner is. 

Let’s look at the polling driving those numbers:

Carson is genuinely toasty toast toast. His campaign was predicated on honesty, and then it turned out he was a pathological liar. Goodbye! But don’t cry for him, the grift will keep him going for years, a la Sarah Palin. It’s lucrative being a dumb-fuck conservative. 

Cruz has gained, but barely. He’ll get more of Carson’s waning support, but enough to be a threat? I’m not so sure anymore. Same with Rubio as he picks up Jeb Bush’s crumbs, but enough to matter? 

Holy sweet jesus, Trump is going to be their nominee! Can the early states save the GOP from itself?