Armenia's Central Bank expects economy to grow between 6.1-6.8 per cent in 2024

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YEREVAN, 12 June. /ARKA/. Armenia's Central Bank said in its second quarter monetary policy report that it expects the country's economy to grow between 6.1 per cent and 6.8 per cent in 2024./pp

Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan said earlier that the regulator launched a new second-generation monetary analytical system for policy analysis and forecasting (FPAS Mark II)./pp

Thus, in its forecasts, the Central Bank relies on two scenarios: in the first (A) scenario, the regulator's inflation forecasts are higher than those of market participants, while in the second (B) they are lower./pp

Thus, in scenario A, Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 is projected at 6.8 per cent, while in scenario B it is projected at 6.1 per cent. The forecast for 2025 is 6.1 and 3.8 per cent, and 5.5 and 4.1 per cent for 2026./pp

The industrial sector is expected to grow 8.3 per cent this year in scenario ‘A’ and 7.5 per cent in scenario ‘B’, agriculture -3.3 per cent and 2.8 per cent, construction -12.7 per cent in both scenarios, services 6.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent, and net taxes 4.7 per cent and 4.2 per cent./pp

Scenario ‘A’ assumes inflation in Armenia at 0.9 per cent at the end of this year, while scenario ‘B’ - 1.3 per cent. The forecast for 2025 is 4.6-4.1 per cent, and 4.7-4.1 per cent for 2026./pp

Armenia's economic growth is set at 7 per cent in the state budget for 2024. -0-/p