Expert believes Pashinyan may fail without EU’s support

“Pashinyan has had to accept compromises unpopular with the Armenian public. Until Yerevan’s negotiating position with Baku is strengthened, destabilising protests could escalate and perhaps violently so. This would undermine Pashinyan’s ability to implement his domestic reform agenda and to continue peace treaty negotiations with Azerbaijan,” Marie Dumoulin noted in a publication on the ECFR website.

“The recent €270 million plan for Armenian business and industry is a step in this direction, but Hungary has scuppered the EU’s efforts to use the European Peace Facility to provide non-lethal assistance to the Armenian military.

European policymakers need to work towards overcoming their divisions on how to deal with Azerbaijan, an important trade and energy partner for several member states, and a key player of “middle corridor” initiatives. In doing so, the EU should not shy away from using the leverage it has over Azerbaijan, including with the preparation of the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, to try to establish a more balanced negotiation equation that would not let Armenia face its much more powerful neighbour alone,” the expert wrote.

Prior to joining ECFR, Dumoulin worked as a French career diplomat. She headed the Russia and Eastern Europe Department of the French Foreign Ministry.