Spurious math, dubious claims over Islamabad LG poll results

ISLAMABAD: Wednesday was a day of dubious claims and hectic efforts as both the PML-N and PTI scrambled to secure the support of independent candidates.

According to the most up-to-date unofficial results, the PML-N candidates have been elected chairmen in 19 union councils (UCs), while PTI candidates have won in 17 UCs, independent candidates have claimed at least 13 seats and the outcome in one UC was a tie.

However, before an official announcement from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), nearly every party has its own picture of what who won Monday’s elections.

PTI estimates victories on more seats than were being contested; JI, PPP claim winners ‘from other parties’

The PTI proved to be the most efficient in compiling results and releasing them on social media. According to infographics shared from their official Facebook pages, the party claimed to have secured at least 404 out of the 650 seats that were up for grabs in these elections. Their calculations put PML-N in second place with 172 and estimate 74 seats for independent candidates.

However, their math seems somewhat spurious.

According to the ECP notification of the Islamabad LG elections, polling was to be held on the following seats: chairman/vice-chairman (as joint candidates), six general members, two women members, one peasant/worker, one youth and one minority member.

However, ECP recently calculated that at least 27 per cent of the UCs in the capital did not have a minority member running for election. This is because under the law, a councillor seat was created for non-Muslims only in where there were at least 200 minority votes.

This means that the total number of seats that were up for grabs is far less than 650 and makes the PTI claim doubtful.

PTI also claims to have won 387 councillor seats, as opposed to 153 seats won by the PML-N.

The PML-N, on the other hand, appeared to be far less organised. When contacted, PML-N City General Secretary Sajid Abbasi said that his party was still collating results. “I will be in a better position to share the exact figure tomorrow (Thursday),” he said.

Claiming independents

On Wednesday, nearly every political party Dawn spoke to claimed to have the support of several independents. The Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), in fact, claimed that 19 members of the party had won various seats in the LG polls in the federal capital, but none of them was contesting under the party banner.

“We have two chairmen, four vice chairmen and 13 councillors, which includes both general and labour councillors,” said Sajjad Abbassi, a JI spokesperson.

The Awami Workers Party (AWP), which was the torchbearer for the rights of katchi abadi residents in Islamabad, claimed to have emerged as a “genuine third party alternative in the recent local government elections”.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, AWP claimed that three of its candidates; Nasir Khan, Syed Habib Shah and Iqbal Khattak had emerged victorious as councillors from UC-44 and UC-32. Nasir Khan and Syed Habib Shah are both former residents of the demolished katchi abadi in Sector I-11.

Not to be left behind, the PPP – which did not figure much in these elections – also claimed that a majority of the independent candidates, especially in constituencies falling under NA-49, were actually from their party. “We have not yet calculated their number, but a large number of independent and women councillors belong to our party,” a senior PPP leader said, asking not to be named due to the uncertainty of election results.

A senior PML-N figure in Islamabad, meanwhile, admitted that the party strategy had been to concentrate on the election for chairman/vice-chairman and that it had nearly achieved its target there. “We did not even focus on the elections for councillor seats,” he said.

Published in Dawn, December 3rd, 2015