The West’s Silver Lining in Turkey-Russia Tensions

The fallout from Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian warplane that violated its airspace over Thanksgiving week has continued to reverberate with regional and global implications. Moscow’s reaction has been predictably fast and furious, stopping short of armed retaliation but including almost everything else against Ankara, including economic sanctions, travel bans and hostile rhetoric. Ankara for its part has sought to de-escalate the situation by softening its own tone and proactively putting in place a temporary no-fly zone along its border with Syria, all while trying to engage with Moscow at every level. In addition to its bilateral engagement with Russia that has stopped just short of an apology, Turkey has sought reassurances from NATO and Washington that it has received, while simultaneously reaching a deal with the European Union on refugee cooperation. While in the short-term not much has changed, Turkey’s actions against Russia in Syria may prove to be a longer-term tipping point for Ankara’s transatlantic relations if managed properly by the West.

Prior to last week no regional or international power had dared to militarily challenge President Putin’s aggressive new strategy for Russian foreign policy in its “near abroad.” Despite economic sanctions and strong rhetoric over Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and proxy war in Ukraine, the transatlantic community seemed to calculate that the costs of confrontation far exceeded the benefits. Even as Putin moved from Ukraine into Syria to support his ally Assad with not just military supplies but direct air support there seemed to be a grudging acceptance by the West that nothing could be done—indeed Russia’s direct intervention could be a part of the longer-term solution in Syria. Having flagrantly violated Turkey’s airspace enroute to open its new Syrian front, Putin sent a clear message of his intentions and particularly angered President Erdogan with his choice of anti-Assad Turkmen targets rather than ISIS or Kurdish forces which would have allowed the two leaders to paper over their differences.