US scrap trends outlook: August 2024

What is the outlook for the US scrap market?

• The US scrap trend indicator for August is bullish with a score of 52.1
• +0.4% change in scrap prices is estimated for next month
• Sellers are slightly more optimistic at 59.9, followed by the brokers at 50.0 and the buyers at 46.4
• Inventory levels are near equilibrium at 49.8, suggesting neither a surplus nor a deficit compared to long-term

US scrap market participants agree on a stable outlook

The ferrous scrap market exhibited modest activity in August 2024, with the trend indicator slightly above neutral at 52.1, suggesting a stable outlook. Actual scrap prices showed a minimal increase of 0.6%, in line also with the expected 0.4% month-on-month growth for next month.

High consensus among market participants

Stability amid low demand and tight supply

The inventory levels are near equilibrium at 49.8, suggesting neither a surplus nor a deficit compared to long-term. The primary market driver for August is not demand or supply, but a balanced supply-demand scenario without significant disruptions. Some respondents suggested that despite low demand, particularly from domestic mills, export markets are supporting prices and preventing a downturn.

The overall sentiment suggests that there are no immediate signs of significant price movements. This cautious optimism is underpinned by concerns over the global economic environment and potential external disruptions, which could impact future market dynamics.

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